Overall Picture: Year Five Begins

As Ukraine's war with Russia enters its fifth year, the fundamental character of the conflict has not changed: attritional, grinding positional warfare along a roughly 1,000km frontline, with Russia applying consistent pressure through numerical superiority in personnel and artillery while Ukraine compensates with superior intelligence, Western weapons systems, drone capability, and defensive fortifications.

The overall territorial picture as of late February 2026:

• Russia controls approximately 18-19% of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory
• This includes: all of Crimea, most of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and substantial portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts
• Russia has made modest but real gains in 2025, primarily in the Donetsk direction
• Ukraine's defensive lines have largely held outside of the Donetsk salient
• No major operational breakthroughs by either side since the Kherson liberation in November 2022

The critical difference from 2022–2023 is the much higher Russian casualty rate relative to territorial gains in 2024–2025, suggesting Russia's attritional approach is costly even as it produces some results.

Donbas: The Main Effort (February 2026)

The Donetsk direction remains Russia's main operational effort, with persistent pressure across multiple axes simultaneously.

Pokrovsk Direction

Pokrovsk remains Russia's most operationally significant target in Donetsk oblast — a rail and logistics hub whose fall would create significant problems for Ukrainian logistics. Russian forces have maintained continuous pressure on approaches to Pokrovsk through 2025, making incremental gains at high cost. As of February 2026, Russian forces remain approximately 15-20km from the city proper, having advanced from greater distances in 2024.

Chasiv Yar

Fighting for Chasiv Yar — a city astride a strategic ridge dominating the Bakhmut area — has been among the most intense of the war. Russian forces have partially captured the western portions of the city but Ukrainian forces hold eastern districts and the strategic high ground. The battle for Chasiv Yar continues as one of the war's defining urban engagements.

Toretsk

Russian forces have made sustained progress in Toretsk, with significant portions of the city under Russian control as of February 2026. Ukrainian forces maintain a difficult urban defensive battle while attempting to preserve positions on dominant terrain.

Kurakhove Area

Russian forces captured most of Kurakhove in late 2025 and are pressing toward Kostyantynivka. This axis represents a potential threat to Ukrainian supply lines in the southern Donetsk area.

Zaporizhzhia Sector

The Zaporizhzhia front has been relatively stable compared to Donetsk through most of 2025. Russia's deep defensive lines established after the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive proved formidable, and Ukraine has not mounted a major offensive in this direction.

Key points:

• Ukraine retains the city of Zaporizhzhia and the Dnipro industrial region
• The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remains under Russian control under IAEA monitoring
• Occasional Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia city continue but have not produced territorial change
• The front has been de facto the most frozen sector of the war

Kherson/Dnipro Sector

The Kherson front remains defined by the Dnipro River as a natural barrier. Ukraine controls the west bank of the Dnipro up to and including the city of Kherson (liberated November 2022); Russia controls the east bank and the city of Nova Kakhovka. Ukraine has maintained small bridgehead positions on the Dnipro islands and the east bank, most notably near Krynky.

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June 2023 significantly altered the tactical environment. The flooding receded but left Dnipro River crossing points changed, making large-scale amphibious crossing operations more complex.

Ukraine's naval drone program continues to harass Russian forces on the east bank and provides intelligence collection in the river delta area.

Kharkiv Sector

Kharkiv — Ukraine's second-largest city — came under severe pressure in May 2024 when Russian forces opened a new offensive axis through Kharkiv oblast. Ukrainian forces ultimately halted the Russian advance before it could threaten the city itself, stabling the front approximately 30-40km north of Kharkiv.

As of February 2026, the Kharkiv sector is under low-intensity pressure. Occasional Russian attempts to expand the Kharkiv oblast bridgehead have been repulsed, and the front has stabilized near the villages of Vovchansk and Lyptsi. The city of Kharkiv continues to face air and missile attacks but is not under immediate ground threat.

Sumy Sector

The Sumy direction gained new significance in August 2024 when Ukraine launched the surprise Kursk cross-border operation. By early 2026, Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from most of their Kursk incursion territory under Russian and North Korean troop pressure, but the operation had significant strategic effects (see Kursk Operation: Final Assessment).

The Sumy region itself faces renewed Russian pressure, with attacks along the border region. Ukrainian counter-fire operations including drone strikes against Russian staging areas continue.

Kursk Aftermath

Ukraine's Kursk incursion (August 2024 – early 2026) ultimately resulted in Ukrainian withdrawal from most captured Russian territory after Russia reinforced with North Korean troops and Chinese-supplied equipment. However, its strategic effects were significant: its strategic effects were significant:

• Kept approximately 50,000 Russian troops occupied on the Kursk front during a critical period
• Generated global media attention and demonstrated Ukrainian offensive capability
• Created a prisoner exchange leverage point used for several major exchanges
• Exposed North Korean troop presence to the world, significantly damaging Pyongyang's "neutrality" claim and triggering Western and South Korean policy responses
• Demonstrated that Ukrainian forces could operate effectively on Russian territory

Aerial Campaign

Russia's aerial campaign against Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure has continued at an elevated pace through 2025–2026, with an increasing proportion of attacks using Shahed-type drones due to their relatively low cost being difficult to address with existing interception capacity.

Key metrics:

• Russia launched approximately 3,000+ Shahed drones against Ukraine in the second half of 2025
• Ukraine's air defense intercepts approximately 60-70% of drone attacks and higher percentage of ballistic/cruise missiles
• Ukraine's deep strike campaign has targeted Russian oil refineries, ammunition depots, drone production facilities, and logistics infrastructure
• Taurus missile deliveries (late 2025) added a new long-range strike capability
• Ukraine's own drone strike campaign against Russian territory has continued at unprecedented scale

Overall Military Balance Assessment

Outlook Through Mid-2026

The most likely trajectory through mid-2026 is continued attritional warfare without major operational breakthroughs. Russia will continue grinding pressure in Donetsk while Ukraine attempts to hold defensible lines and conduct depth strikes against Russian logistics and industrial infrastructure.

The key variable is whether Western support — particularly Western ammunition deliveries — can match Russian artillery consumption. Recent increases in European ammunition production are improving the supply balance, but an acute shortage remains.

Ukrainian drone strike capability continues to deepen, increasingly targeting Russian defense production facilities, oil infrastructure, and military command nodes. This "strategic raiding" campaign imposes real costs on Russia even without major frontline changes.

Frequently Asked Questions