Overview: Donetsk as the Main Effort

Throughout 2025 and into 2026, Russia designated Donetsk oblast as its primary operational theater. Russian forces have concentrated approximately 60–70% of their attacking effort in this direction, applying multi-axis pressure to force Ukrainian reserves to commit across multiple sectors simultaneously.

The overall goals of Russia's Donetsk campaign appear to be:

• Administrative: Completing the seizure of all of Donetsk oblast to its administrative boundary (a stated Russian political goal)
• Operational: Seizing Pokrovsk as a logistics hub disrupting Ukrainian supply to the central Donetsk sector
• Attritional: Grinding Ukrainian manpower and consuming Western-supplied ammunition reserves

Russia's progress toward these goals has been real but slower and costlier than Moscow anticipated at the start of 2025.

Pokrovsk Axis (Most Critical)

Pokrovsk is the most operationally significant target on the Donbas front. As a major road and rail junction, its fall would severely disrupt Ukrainian logistics in the central Donetsk sector, potentially forcing a repositioning of Ukrainian forces across hundreds of kilometers of front.

Situation as of February 2026

Russian forces have made persistent advance toward Pokrovsk through 2025. The front line as of late February 2026 places Russian forces approximately 15–20km east and southeast of Pokrovsk proper, having pushed Ukrainian forces out of outlying villages in Selydove and Myrnohrad areas. The smaller city of Myrnohrad has been a particular focus — it serves as a Ukrainian defensive anchor protecting Pokrovsk's southern approaches.

Russian Operational Approach

Russia is using a multi-axis approach toward Pokrovsk, attacking from:

• The northeast through the Selezione-Novohrodivka corridor
• The east through Myrnohrad
• The southeast through Kurakhove and creating a potential encirclement threat

This multi-axis approach forces Ukraine to defend across a broad front and compromises Ukraine's ability to create a solid defensive line facing a single axis.

Ukrainian Defense

Ukraine has reinforced the Pokrovsk defensive sector significantly through late 2025 and early 2026, committing experienced units from other sectors. The Ukrainian military has pre-positioned defensive lines designed to make any Russian approach costly. Key factors working in Ukraine's favor include:

• Large-scale fortification work throughout 2025 (trenches, anti-tank obstacles, bunkers)
• Superior artillery counterbattery capability using Western HIMARS, M109, and PzH2000
• Dense drone surveillance coverage over all likely Russian approach routes
• Heavily mined terrain on all main approach roads

Chasiv Yar

The battle for Chasiv Yar has been the most intense urban fighting since Bakhmut in 2022–2023. The city sits on an elevated ridge west of Bakhmut with dominating views over the entire Donetsk industrial zone — making it strategically critical.

Battle Background

Russia began concerted attacks on Chasiv Yar in spring 2024, after completing the capture of Avdiivka. The city is divided into districts: the lower Kanal district and the upper Novyi Microraion (new neighborhood) on higher ground.

Current Status

By February 2026, Russia has partially captured western portions of Chasiv Yar including most of the Kanal microdistrict. Ukrainian forces have maintained strong positions in eastern and northern sections of the city and on the strategic high ground. The front line runs through the middle of the city.

Russia has used significant glide bomb (KAB-series) attacks against the city's remaining structures, but dense rubble has paradoxically aided Ukrainian defenders by creating barriers to Russian vehicle movement.

Toretsk

Toretsk (formerly known as Dzerzhynsk) has been the scene of sustained urban combat throughout 2025. Russia has gradually captured much of the city through attritional block-by-block fighting.

By February 2026, Russian forces control significant portions of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces maintaining positions in the northwestern parts of the city and connecting fortified lines. The battle represents another example of Russia's preferred "small storm" tactics: waves of infantry assaults across destroyed urban terrain.

Tactical Significance

Toretsk's complete capture would allow Russia to threaten Kostyantynivka, a larger city and important Ukrainian logistics hub. However, capture of Toretsk alone does not automatically translate into operational progress — Ukraine's defensive preparation of the Kostyantynivka approaches has been extensive.

Kurakhove Sector

Kurakhove was largely captured by Russian forces in late 2025, representing one of Russia's more significant gains of that year. The city included an important thermal power plant that has now been destroyed in the fighting.

Russia is now pushing northwest from Kurakhove toward Ukrainian positions. This axis creates a potential threat to Pokrovsk from the south, contributing to Russia's multi-axis approach described above.

Russian Tactics & Attack Patterns

Russia's attack patterns in the Donbas evolved significantly through 2024–2025:

Human Wave / "Meat Assault" Tactics

Russia has made extensive use of small infantry assaults using convict and mobilized soldiers as "cannon fodder" to probe Ukrainian positions, find weaknesses, and attrit defenders. These assaults frequently involve vehicles carrying 6–10 men driving at Ukrainian lines under covering fire — a high-casualty approach that nevertheless keeps continuous pressure on Ukrainian defenders.

Glide Bomb Preparation

The KAB-series glide bomb has become Russia's primary tool for destroying fortified Ukrainian positions before assault. Dropped from Su-34 aircraft at safe standoff distances (40–70km), these 500–1,500kg munitions can collapse building structures. Ukraine's air defense cannot intercept them effectively prior to impact due to their trajectory.

Multi-Battalion Coordination

In some sectors, particularly near Pokrovsk, Russia has improved multi-battalion coordination compared to 2022–2023, using overlapping attack axes to prevent Ukraine from shifting reserves to any single threatened point. Electronic warfare coverage suppresses Ukrainian drone reconnaissance, allowing assault preparation under partial cover.

Ukraine's Defensive Strategy

Ukraine's Donbas defensive strategy in 2025–2026 rests on several pillars:

Deep Defenses

Ukraine spent 2024–2025 constructing multiple defensive belts in Donetsk oblast — a lesson from the failure to hold single-line positions. These include anti-tank ditches, dragon's teeth, reinforced bunker networks, and extensive minefields. The "Dragon Line" fortification project reportedly involves thousands of kilometers of obstacles.

FPV Drone Dominance

Ukraine's FPV (First-Person View) drone program has matured significantly. Ukraine deploys FPV drones in industrial quantities — reportedly producing 2–3 million per year as of late 2025 — to interdict Russian supply lines, destroy vehicles, and target personnel attempting to approach positions. Russia has responded with electronic warfare, but Ukraine continues to develop frequency-agile and AI-guided drones to counter EW.

Precision Interdiction

HIMARS and equivalent systems continue to target Russian ammunition depots, command posts, and logistics nodes. Each successful strike can disrupt Russian attacks for days by removing artillery support. Ukraine has also deployed ATACMS against high-value targets in the rear areas.

Attrition & Casualties

The Donbas fighting is producing the highest casualties of any theater in the war. Both sides suffer significant losses:

• Ukrainian official claims: Russia losing 1,200–1,500 troops per day across all fronts (likely with some exaggeration)
• Western intelligence assessments (range): 800–1,100 Russian casualties per day (killed and wounded)
• Russian cumulative war casualties through February 2026: estimated 700,000–900,000 killed and wounded
• Ukrainian casualties: classified, but substantial — estimated 150,000–300,000 total over the war
• Equipment losses (Oryx verified): Russia 18,000+ vehicles and pieces of equipment destroyed

Russia has been able to sustain these losses through continued mobilization but is consuming experienced cadre units. Force quality, particularly for complex combined-arms operations, has generally declined compared to pre-war levels.

Strategic Assessment

Russia's Donbas campaign is achieving incremental results at very high cost. At current rates of progress, Russia could take many more years to reach any of its stated territorial objectives in Donetsk — and this assumes Ukrainian capacity to defend does not improve.

Key factors that could change the dynamic:

• Western ammunition supply: A significant increase in European ammunition production (now ramping) could allow Ukraine to contest Russian fires superiority
• Air defense gaps: Any degradation of Ukraine's air defense would increase Russian ability to use manned aviation more aggressively
• Manpower: Ukraine's mobilization of additional brigades through 2025 has helped stabilize the front; any manpower crisis would accelerate Russian progress
• Ceasefire/diplomacy: Active ceasefire discussions could freeze the front before Russia achieves its geographic goals

Frequently Asked Questions