Overview: One Year Under Trump

As February 2026 marks both the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion and approximately thirteen months since Donald Trump returned to the White House, the US-Ukraine relationship has undergone its most significant transformation since the start of the war. The partnership that characterized the Biden era — characterized by steadily escalating weapons deliveries, robust intelligence sharing, and unambiguous rhetorical support for Ukraine's territorial integrity — has given way to something more transactional, conditional, and unpredictable.

The landmark event of the first year was the Oval Office confrontation of 28 February 2025, when a meeting between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and President Zelensky became a globally broadcast dispute over Ukraine's negotiating posture. The fallout included a temporary intelligence-sharing pause, diplomatic turbulence with European allies, and a period of acute uncertainty about the future of US support.

Yet by early 2026, a degree of stabilization has occurred. Military aid continues. Intelligence sharing has been fully restored. A minerals partnership framework has been agreed in principle. And the broader strategic rationale for US support — countering Russian expansionism, maintaining European security, protecting NATO credibility — remains intact regardless of the administration in power.

The relationship is "managed estrangement" rather than outright abandonment: neither warmth nor rupture, but a working arrangement defined by mutual interests rather than shared values.

Military Aid: Current Status (Early 2026)

US military aid to Ukraine continues as of early 2026, though with important changes in character compared to the Biden era.

What Continues

• Ammunition resupply for HIMARS and 155mm artillery systems
• Air defense missiles, including for Patriot and NASAMS systems
• Spare parts and maintenance support for US-supplied platforms
• Intelligence and surveillance support (fully restored)
• Training of Ukrainian forces at US and European facilities

What Has Changed

• New weapons system approvals require more political clearance than under Biden
• Some stockpile drawdown authorizations have been paused or delayed
• Deep strike permissions for US-supplied weapons inside Russia have been reviewed and partially restricted
• Total aid volume in 2025 was lower than 2024 by approximately 25-30%

Total Aid Figures

Cumulative US assistance to Ukraine from February 2022 through early 2026 exceeds $185 billion across all categories. By comparison, total European Union and member-state contributions now exceed $120 billion, reflecting the massive increase in European support triggered in part by uncertainty about US commitment.

Intelligence Sharing: Restored But Modified

Following the six-week intelligence-sharing pause in early 2025, full intelligence cooperation was restored by May 2025 under pressure from European allies and bipartisan Congressional concern about the operational impact on Ukrainian forces.

However, the nature of intelligence sharing has reportedly evolved:

• US satellite reconnaissance and signals intelligence continues to flow to Ukraine
• Targeting data for long-range strikes against targets inside internationally recognized Russian territory has reportedly been subject to new review procedures
• Intelligence related to Crimea and occupied Ukrainian territories is shared without restriction
• The UK and France have developed supplementary sharing frameworks that reduce Ukraine's dependence on any single source

The episode highlighted a critical vulnerability: Ukraine's battle management, targeting systems, and ISR capabilities are deeply integrated with US infrastructure. Developing resilience against potential future disruptions has become a priority for Ukrainian planners.

Minerals Deal: Framework Agreement Reached

One of the more constructive developments in US-Ukraine relations over the past year has been the gradual progress on a Critical Minerals Partnership framework.

Ukraine possesses substantial deposits of minerals critical to the green energy transition and defense manufacturing:

• Lithium: Significant deposits in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad oblasts (some in occupied territory)
• Titanium: Ukraine holds some of Europe's largest titanium deposits
• Graphite: A major global supplier before the war
• Rare earth elements: Deposits across multiple oblasts
• Uranium: Significant reserves (Kirovohrad region)
• Manganese, iron ore, coal: Substantial reserves

After months of difficult negotiations — in which Ukraine pushed back against early US proposals seen as too favorable to American interests — a framework deal was agreed in principle in late 2025. Key elements include:

• A joint US-Ukraine Critical Minerals Investment Fund
• Revenue sharing arrangements providing approximately 50% of future profits to Ukraine's reconstruction fund
• US companies gaining preferential but not exclusive access to mining rights
• Explicit linkage to continued US security support obligations

The deal remains subject to Ukrainian parliamentary ratification and has been controversial in Kyiv, with some parliamentarians viewing it as an unfair exchange of sovereignty for security support. The Zelensky administration has defended it as pragmatic given the realpolitik of the Trump era.

US Role in Peace Negotiations

The Trump administration has positioned itself as a potential mediator between Ukraine and Russia — a role the Biden administration explicitly rejected in favor of supporting Ukraine's war aims. This fundamental reorientation of US policy creates both risks and opportunities.

US Peace Framework Elements

• Immediate ceasefire along current frontlines
• Deferred Ukraine NATO membership (proposed 20-year moratorium)
• Demilitarized zone along line of contact
• International monitoring mechanism
• Phased sanctions relief for Russia (proposed, not agreed)

Ukraine's Position

Ukraine has consistently rejected frameworks that:

• Formally recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied territories
• Exclude a path to NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees
• Leave Ukraine without adequate defense capabilities post-ceasefire

President Zelensky has proposed his "Victory Plan" as an alternative framework — insisting on sufficient security guarantees (equivalent to Article 5) before any ceasefire, and maintaining Ukraine's legal claim to all occupied territories regardless of any temporary ceasefire line.

Russia's Position

Russia has shown limited genuine interest in the Trump peace framework despite public diplomatic overtures. Moscow's stated demands — Ukrainian neutrality, official recognition of territorial annexations, severe limits on Ukraine's military — remain incompatible with any terms Ukraine could accept. Russia's continued tactical advances in Donbas suggest it believes time favors its position.

Congressional Dynamics

The US Congress remains a crucial variable in the Ukraine support equation. Despite Trump's more ambivalent approach, bipartisan support for Ukraine persists in Congress:

• A significant group of Republican senators have consistently supported Ukraine aid
• Democrat support remains near-universal
• Congressional oversight has acted as a constraint on the most drastic proposed aid cutbacks
• The FY2026 defense authorization includes Ukraine aid provisions, though in reduced form

Congressional Ukraine caucuses in both chambers have maintained active engagement with Kyiv, providing an alternative channel to the executive branch when White House relations are strained.

The Europe Factor: Reduced US Leverage

Paradoxically, Trump's more conditional approach to Ukraine has reduced US leverage by accelerating Europe's assumption of the Ukraine support role. As European contributions have grown to a combined total exceeding $120 billion — and as the EU's ReArm Europe initiative pledges €150 billion in additional defense investment — Ukraine's dependence on any single American decision-maker has diminished.

Key European contributions as of early 2026:

• UK: Committed to 10,000 troop deployment for potential peacekeeping; leading in long-range strike weapons delivery
• Germany: €40 billion annual Ukraine support commitment under Merz government; Taurus cruise missiles approved
• France: Caesar artillery, SCALP missiles, training missions, potential troop deployment
• Poland: Largest European military aid contributor in absolute terms; strategic depth support
• Nordic-Baltic states: Highest per-capita contributors; leading in ammunition and drone production

See: European Defense Spending Surge 2026

Ukraine's Washington Strategy

President Zelensky and his team have adapted their Washington engagement strategy significantly for the Trump era:

Economic Framing

Zelensky has shifted from "values-based" appeals (democracy vs. autocracy) to more transactional arguments that resonate with Trump: Ukraine as a massive market for US reconstruction contracts, as a supplier of critical minerals, and as a proving ground for US weapons systems that demonstrates their value to other buyers.

Business Network Engagement

The Zelensky government has significantly expanded engagement with Trump's business network and major Republican donors, creating economic constituencies for Ukraine support that operate independently of official government-to-government relations.

Congressional Maintenance

Zelensky's office maintains intensive engagement with Congress — particularly the bipartisan Ukraine caucuses — ensuring that Ukraine retains champions in the legislative branch even when executive branch relations are difficult.

Diversification

Ukraine has accelerated its diplomatic diversification: deepening ties with the UK, France, Germany, Poland, and Japan; engaging Gulf states for investment commitments; and strengthening direct EU relationships that bypass the bilateral US relationship.

Outlook Through 2026

The trajectory of US-Ukraine relations through 2026 depends heavily on several variables:

Scenario 1: Managed Partnership Continues

The current arrangement — conditional but continuing military support, minerals deal ratification, ongoing peace diplomacy — continues without major disruption. This is the baseline scenario, with approximately 55% probability based on current indicators.

Scenario 2: Accelerated Peace Push

The Trump administration intensifies pressure for a ceasefire deal, potentially including threats of significant aid reduction, to achieve a diplomatic success before midterm political dynamics shift. This scenario carries risks of forcing Ukraine into an unfavorable agreement. Probability: ~25%.

Scenario 3: Renewed Strengthening

Russian military escalation, a major war crime, or a new geopolitical crisis (Taiwan, etc.) reshapes US strategic calculations and leads to renewed, more robust US support for Ukraine. Probability: ~15%.

Scenario 4: Significant Aid Reduction

A breakdown in minerals deal negotiations or peace talk dynamics leads to significant additional reduction in US support. European allies would attempt to compensate but with limited success in the near term. Probability: ~5%.

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