The Scholz Era: Germany as a Brake on Ukraine Support

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's approach to Ukraine support was characterized by consistent caution, frequent delays, and a pattern of announcing decisions weeks or months after allies had already moved. While Germany ultimately became Ukraine's largest European military supporter by total volume — delivering Gepard air defense systems, Marder IFVs, Leopard 2 tanks, Patriot batteries, and vast quantities of ammunition — the pace was politically managed to minimize domestic controversy and avoid what Scholz repeatedly described as "escalation risks."

The most contentious symbol was the Taurus cruise missile. Ukraine repeatedly requested Taurus KEPD-350 cruise missiles — German-made long-range precision weapons capable of striking targets 500km away. Scholz refused multiple times over more than two years, citing fears of German technology being used to strike deep inside Russia and the risk of direct German involvement in the conflict. Even as the UK delivered Storm Shadow and France delivered SCALP missiles (functionally equivalent systems), Scholz held the line.

Critics argued that Scholz's approach was driven less by genuine escalation concerns than by domestic politics, a desire to keep communication channels open with Moscow, and the influence of Germany's historically large Russia-friendly business and political community. The Scholz government fell in November 2024 following a budget crisis and coalition collapse.

Merz's Election and Early Signals (February–March 2025)

Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU won the February 2025 German federal election on a platform that included a significantly stronger stance on Ukraine support and Russian aggression. Merz had been a consistent critic of Scholz's caution throughout the opposition years, repeatedly calling for Taurus delivery and a more assertive German role.

Merz formed a coalition with the Social Democrats — significantly without the Greens, who had actually been the most hawkish on Ukraine within the Scholz coalition — and included SPD defense minister Boris Pistorius, who shared Merz's more robust approach.

Within weeks of taking office, the new government signaled the depth of the shift:

• Germany immediately supported the French-British "Coalition of the Willing" framework
• Initial statements indicated willingness to reconsider Taurus
• A emergency defense spending package was in preparation
• Germany reversed its previous opposition to a European defense industrial capacity package at the EU level

The €500 Billion Defense and Infrastructure Fund

The most dramatic early action of the Merz government was the successful passage of a constitutional amendment in March 2025 to create a €500 billion special fund for defense and infrastructure investment — explicitly exempting it from Germany's constitutional "debt brake" (Schuldenbremse).

This was constitutionally and politically remarkable. The debt brake, inserted into Germany's Basic Law in 2009, has been the cornerstone of German fiscal conservatism for 15 years. Passing a constitutional amendment requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament. The fact that Merz achieved this within weeks of taking office reflects the depth of the perceived security threat.

Fund Allocation

• €100 billion: Defense — Bundeswehr modernization, equipment, personnel
• €400 billion: Infrastructure — roads, bridges, railways, digital infrastructure, energy

Bundeswehr Investments

• Army expansion: from 183,000 to target of 230,000 soldiers
• Heavy armor: additional Leopard 2A8 procurement
• Air defense: additional IRIS-T SLM and IRIS-T SLS batteries; SHORAD capacity expansion
• Long-range strike: investment in domestic Taurus successor programs and joint European programs
• Naval: frigate and submarine capacity expansion
• Ammunition stockpiles: tripling of 155mm artillery stockpiles by 2028

Taurus Missiles: The Decisive Policy Shift

The symbolic and practical capstone of Germany's Ukraine policy shift was the April 2025 announcement that Taurus KEPD-350 cruise missiles would be delivered to Ukraine.

What Taurus Brings to Ukraine

• Range: approximately 500km, the longest-range cruise missile in Ukraine's arsenal
• Precision: sub-meter accuracy with MIDS/TERNCOM terrain reference navigation
• Penetration: designed to penetrate hardened bunkers and deep underground structures
• Low observability: low-radar-cross-section design for enhanced survivability
• Air-launched: delivered from Tornado and potentially other platforms

Targets Enabled

Taurus significantly enhances Ukraine's ability to strike:

• Deep Russian logistics and command nodes in occupied Ukraine
• The Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge)
• Russian air bases in Crimea and potentially southern Russia
• Ammunition depots and railheads beyond the range of ATACMS and Storm Shadow

Political Significance

The Taurus delivery shattered the last major Western taboo on long-range strike weapons for Ukraine. If Germany — historically the most cautious major European power on weapons delivery — was willing to provide 500km-range cruise missiles, the political space for any further escalation-avoidance arguments effectively closed.

Germany's Ukraine Support Package Under Merz

Beyond Taurus, Germany under Merz has adopted a comprehensive, long-term Ukraine support framework:

Bilateral Framework

• €40 billion annual commitment to Ukraine for as long as necessary
• Multi-year pledging framework providing Ukraine with planning certainty
• Enhanced defense industrial cooperation: supporting Ukrainian drone and ammunition production
• Repair and maintenance facilities for German-supplied equipment based in Germany and Poland

Military Deliveries (Since Merz, 2025)

• Taurus cruise missiles (number classified, estimated dozens)
• Additional Patriot air defense batteries and missiles
• IRIS-T SLM system #3 and #4
• Leopard 2A6 tanks (additional batch)
• Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers (additional batch)
• Massive ammunition deliveries including 155mm, Gepard ammunition resumed through third-party sourcing

Germany's New Strategic Posture

Under Merz, Germany has moved from a reluctant, reactive supporter of Ukraine to an active co-leader of the European Ukraine support effort alongside France and the UK. This represents a genuine Zeitenwende 2.0 — a second pivotal turning point in German strategic orientation.

Key strategic elements:

• Germany as the backbone of European land defense: largest army, most armor, most artillery of any EU member
• Co-leadership of European defense industrial expansion
• Explicit framing of Russian aggression as an existential threat to the European security order
• Historical reckoning: Merz has directly linked Germany's special responsibility for European peace to its Ukraine support
• Active Coalition of the Willing participation alongside France and UK

Domestic Challenges

Merz's Germany is not without internal tensions:

• AfD opposition: The far-right Alternative für Deutschland, now the second-largest party, opposes Ukraine support and seeks a rapprochement with Russia
• BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance): Left-wing nationalist party opposes weapons deliveries
• SPD tensions: The coalition partner's left wing retains instincts toward dialogue with Russia
• Industrial adjustment: German companies with Russian market exposure face adjustment costs
• Public opinion: While most Germans support Ukraine, enthusiasm for open-ended military commitment is not universal

Merz has navigated these tensions through a combination of firm public messaging, emphasizing the direct security threat to Germany, and careful coalition management. The constitutional majority required for the defense fund demonstrated his capacity to build consensus even for controversial measures.

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