Background: Merz Before the Chancellery

Friedrich Merz — corporate lawyer, former Blackrock Germany chairman, and long-time CDU politician — spent much of his career as the leading conservative critic of Angela Merkel's center-left drift of the CDU. After years in the political wilderness following Merkel's ascent, he returned to lead the CDU in 2022 and built the party back to a commanding position in the polls.

On Russia and Ukraine, Merz was notably more hawkish than his predecessor Olaf Scholz. He consistently criticized the Scholz government's cautious approach to weapons deliveries, its delays on Leopard tank transfers, and its categorical refusal to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. He argued that Germany had a moral and strategic responsibility to support Ukraine more robustly, and that excessive caution was emboldening Russia.

He was also critical of previous German energy dependency on Russia — characterizing it as a catastrophic strategic error — and committed to never allowing Germany to again become dependent on authoritarian states for critical energy.

The February 2025 Election

The CDU/CSU won the German federal election on 23 February 2025 — by coincidence, one day before the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The election followed the dramatic collapse of the Scholz "traffic light" coalition government in late 2024, triggered by disagreements over budget policy.

The CDU/CSU won approximately 29% of the vote, making them the largest party. The SPD came second with around 16%. The far-right AfD made significant gains, finishing second with around 20% of the vote — a result that complicated coalition formation and sent alarm signals about the state of German democracy.

Merz led coalition negotiations with the SPD, forming a center-right government that excluded the AfD. Coalition formation took approximately six weeks, with Merz finally being elected Chancellor in April 2025.

The election result was widely interpreted internationally as a signal that Germany was moving toward a more assertive foreign policy stance — including on Ukraine — given Merz's campaign positions.

Becoming Chancellor (April 2025)

Merz was elected Chancellor by the Bundestag in April 2025 and immediately set a different tone from his predecessor. His inaugural government statement outlined several priorities directly relevant to Ukraine:

• Germany would dramatically increase defense spending — above 2% GDP.
• Germany remained fully committed to Ukrainian sovereignty and would expand military assistance.
• Germany would take a leading role in European defense integration rather than waiting for French or British leadership.
• The question of Taurus cruise missiles would be reviewed "with fresh eyes."
• Germany's relationship with the US would be maintained, but European strategic autonomy was a priority.

Related: Olaf Scholz – Zeitenwende Legacy

The Taurus Missile Decision

One of Merz's most significant early decisions as Chancellor — and the one with the most direct military impact on Ukraine — was reversing Germany's refusal to supply TAURUS KEPD 350 cruise missiles to Ukraine.

The Taurus debate had been one of the defining controversies of the Scholz era. With a range of 500+ km, Taurus missiles would give Ukraine the ability to strike deep inside Russia and Crimea — including potentially the Kerch Bridge. Scholz had categorically refused to approve their transfer, citing escalation fears and concerns about German personnel needing to be involved in targeting.

Merz commissioned a new legal and operational review in his first weeks in office. The review concluded that Taurus could be transferred with appropriate operational parameters — Ukraine would receive the missiles with pre-programmed modes that restricted their use to targets within Ukrainian territory or against military targets in occupied territories, and the German military would not be directly involved in targeting.

The transfer of a first batch of Taurus missiles was announced in mid-2025, representing a significant expansion of Ukraine's long-range strike capability and a landmark in German Ukraine policy.

American reaction from the Trump administration was mixed — officially the US was not opposed but privately some officials expressed concern that the Taurus transfers complicated their ceasefire diplomacy by strengthening Ukraine's military position and reducing incentives to negotiate.

Related: Taurus Missile – Germany's Debate Explained

Defense Spending Surge

Merz's most structurally significant decision was committing Germany to dramatically increased defense spending. Under Scholz, Germany had finally reached the NATO 2% GDP target in 2024 after years of falling below it. Merz committed to:

• 3% of GDP on defense by 2027
• An additional €100 billion special defense fund over five years
• Accelerated procurement of air defense systems — particularly for Patriot battery expansion and new IRIS-T SLM units
• Increased production of 155mm artillery shells at German installations
• Doubling the Bundeswehr's active personnel strength plans

To finance this, Merz's coalition negotiated a constitutional exception to Germany's debt brake — a politically contentious but ultimately successful maneuver that passed the Bundestag with the support of outgoing SPD members before the new parliament was seated.

Related: Germany's Ukraine Aid Total

ReArm Europe and EU Defense Integration

Germany under Merz became one of the key drivers of the EU's ReArm Europe initiative — a framework for dramatically increasing European defense investment, partially funded through common EU borrowing. The initiative was announced in early 2025, motivated directly by uncertainty about US commitments after the Munich Security Conference.

Germany's willingness to participate in EU defense bonds and common procurement — previously resisted by Berlin over concerns about fiscal responsibility — was a major change in German European policy. Merz argued this was necessary to build Europe's strategic autonomy.

The ReArm Europe framework committed approximately €800 billion over five years to European defense — the largest peacetime defense investment in European history.

Related: European Rearmament 2026

Managing the US Under Trump

One of the most delicate aspects of Merz's foreign policy was managing Germany's relationship with the Trump administration. Merz was not ideologically aligned with Trump — he was a mainstream center-right politician with deep European and Atlantic commitments — but he had to work with the US as Germany's most important security partner.

After JD Vance's provocative Munich speech, Merz delivered a firm but measured response, affirming European democratic values while not personalizing the confrontation with Vance. He focused on building concrete European defense capabilities rather than public disputes with Washington.

On Ukraine specifically, Merz used Germany's expanded defense capabilities and bilateral Ukraine support as leverage in US-German negotiations, making clear that Europe was prepared to carry more of the burden — but expected continued American engagement.

Related: JD Vance and the Munich Speech

Germany's Ukraine Aid Under Merz

As of February 2026, Germany under Merz has become the largest single European military donor to Ukraine (by value transferred), overtaking the UK. The key elements of Germany's expanded Ukraine package included:

• Taurus cruise missiles (first batch delivered mid-2025)
• Additional IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defense systems
• Substantial 155mm artillery ammunition — Germany became one of Europe's largest shell producers
• Additional Leopard 2 tank deliveries through the coalition framework
• PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer additional deliveries
• Patriot air defense system maintenance support
• Financial aid — Germany committed an additional €7 billion in 2025 budget support for Ukraine

Merz also led the EU framework for managing the proceeds of frozen Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine — a program providing approximately €3 billion per year to Ukraine from interest on the €300 billion+ in frozen Russian funds held in EU institutions.

Related: Germany's IRIS-T for Ukraine | Germany's Leopard 2 Deliveries

Frequently Asked Questions