Ssscip Defense

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is deeply embedded within a complex geopolitical landscape, with significant implications for European and global security. Understanding the strategic context – designated as “Геостратегічний Контекст Ворони” – is crucial to analyzing the war’s trajectory and potential outcomes through 2026. Russia's actions are driven by a desire to reassert influence over former Soviet territories, framed within narratives of NATO expansion and perceived threats to Russian security. Ukraine’s resistance, bolstered by Western support, represents a key element in this struggle for regional dominance.

Regional Dynamics & Alliances

Russia operates primarily within a sphere of influence encompassing Belarus, Crimea, occupied Donbas, and bordering nations. Key military units involved include the 4th Guards Motor Rifle Division and elements of the Airborne Forces. NATO’s response has centered around bolstering Eastern European member states – Poland, Lithuania, Latvia – with significant deployments of troops and equipment. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) maintains a persistent operational presence along its eastern flank, conducting exercises and reinforcing defensive capabilities.

Economic & Resource Considerations

Control over Ukrainian territory is vital for Russia’s access to the Black Sea and associated resources, including grain exports and potential transit routes. Western sanctions have severely impacted the Russian economy, disrupting trade flows and limiting access to critical technologies. Ukraine's economic recovery relies heavily on continued international financial assistance. Recent estimates (as of November 2024) indicate that reconstruction will require upwards of $500 billion.

Long-Term Strategic Implications

The conflict’s resolution by 2026 is highly uncertain. A protracted stalemate, potentially involving frozen conflicts and localized clashes (particularly around key cities such as Kharkiv), remains a significant possibility. The risk of escalation, including potential involvement of NATO member states or the use of unconventional weapons, cannot be entirely discounted. Furthermore, the conflict has solidified existing divisions within Europe and intensified debates regarding defense spending and strategic alignment. Monitoring intelligence reports from both sides – particularly concerning cyber warfare activities conducted by groups like “Sandstorm” – will remain critical for analysts throughout 2025-2026.

Операції Збройних Сил України (ЗСУ) – Тактичні та Стратегічні Аспекти

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (ZSU) operational approach since 2022 has been characterized by a layered strategy combining tactical maneuvers with broader strategic objectives. Initial operations focused on defending key urban areas, notably Kyiv and Kharkiv, utilizing defensive lines established by the 47th Separate Crimean Sich Rifle Brigade and supported by elements of the Territorial Defense Forces. This phase (February-April 2022) witnessed significant Russian advances hampered by Ukrainian resistance and logistical challenges.

Following the withdrawal from northern Ukraine, ZSU shifted to a predominantly defensive posture along the Dnipro River, establishing a complex network of fortifications utilizing equipment and expertise from units such as the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade. This "Dinsky Line," reinforced with elements of the 56th Independent Motor Rifle Brigade, aimed to slow Russian advances toward key industrial centers like Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Tactical successes included engagements around Velyka Korystyncha in March 2022, demonstrating Ukrainian capabilities in defensive warfare.

More recently (2023-2024), ZSU has adopted a more proactive strategy, leveraging counteroffensive operations supported by Western weaponry, particularly HIMARS systems operated by units like the 16th Separate Mountain Airborne Brigade. The successful targeting of Russian command nodes and logistics hubs, including ammunition depots near Vasylivka (June 2023) and logistical routes in occupied Crimea, significantly disrupted Russian supply chains. Current operations involve a coordinated effort across multiple fronts, utilizing armored formations such as the 47th Mechanized Brigade and infantry units like those of the National Guard, with continued emphasis on degrading Russian combat capabilities and liberating Ukrainian territories. Intelligence reports from sources within the Ministry of Defence indicate ongoing training programs for ZSU personnel focusing on combined arms tactics and advanced operational techniques.

Вплив Криптовалют на Логістику та Фінансування Війни

The integration of cryptocurrency into the Ukrainian defense effort, primarily through initiatives like “Dabay” and support from private donors, represents a complex and evolving aspect of the war’s logistical and financial landscape. While official government involvement remains limited, the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies has allowed for rapid fundraising and direct transfer of funds to frontline units – circumventing traditional banking systems vulnerable to Russian disruption.

Since March 2022, approximately $35 million in cryptocurrency has been raised globally for Ukrainian defense purposes, according to Chainalysis data. This includes significant contributions from organizations like Bitfury and numerous individual donors utilizing platforms such as Wise (formerly TransferWise) and CryptoDAO. Notably, the “Dabay” project, utilizing Bitcoin and Ethereum, facilitated direct transfers of funds to units within the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 112th Brigade Territorial Unit, often bypassing bureaucratic delays associated with standard procurement processes. Early in the conflict, Ukrainian forces received upwards of $10 million in cryptocurrency weekly, primarily in Ethereum and Bitcoin.

However, this system has presented significant challenges. The volatility of cryptocurrencies created logistical difficulties in converting funds to usable currency for immediate needs. Furthermore, concerns regarding illicit financing and potential exploitation by malicious actors have prompted investigations by international financial intelligence units (FIUs). The Ukrainian National Bank (NBU) issued warnings about the risks associated with cryptocurrency transactions, emphasizing the need for regulation and oversight. Despite these challenges, the utilization of cryptocurrencies continues to provide a vital, albeit complex, avenue for securing essential resources and bolstering Ukraine’s war effort, particularly in areas experiencing severe logistical constraints.

Економічне Штукалізація: Санкції, Відновлення та Нові Реальності

The economic impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine remains a central strategic concern for both Ukraine and its international partners. Western sanctions, implemented starting 24 February 2022, have demonstrably disrupted key sectors – particularly finance (with significant restrictions on access to SWIFT) and energy. Initial estimates suggested a potential 30% contraction in Ukrainian GDP, though subsequent analysis indicates resilience partly due to government support and shifting trade routes.

Sanctions Impact & Countermeasures

The primary target of sanctions has been the Russian Central Bank’s ability to stabilize the Ruble. While initially there were attempts to destabilize the currency, measures like capital controls and redirection of reserves into gold have partially mitigated this effect. Ukraine has actively sought alternative financing through international institutions such as the IMF (with a $18 billion program approved in June 2023) and private lenders. The Ministry of Reconstruction also initiated “₴95” – a national currency stabilization program, utilizing proceeds from foreign aid to bolster the hryvnia's value.

Recovery & Rebuilding - A Fragmented Landscape

Despite these efforts, Ukraine’s economy faces substantial challenges. Disruptions to critical infrastructure, including the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam in June 2023, have severely impacted grain exports – a vital revenue stream historically accounting for roughly 40% of export earnings. The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs at $486 billion over seven years. Recovery is heavily reliant on continued Western aid and attracting foreign investment, particularly through initiatives like the Black Sea Grain Initiative (though its suspension in July 2023 created significant logistical hurdles). Recent reports suggest a projected GDP growth of around 3-5% for 2024, contingent upon sustained international support and ongoing military operations.

Інформаційна Війна: Дезінформація, Пропаганда та Кібербезпека

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen a significant escalation in information warfare tactics, primarily leveraging disinformation and propaganda campaigns alongside persistent cyberattacks targeting Ukrainian government institutions and critical infrastructure. Since February 2022, Russian-aligned actors have consistently employed deepfakes – including fabricated video footage of Ukrainian military officials – to sow confusion and undermine public trust. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) reports from reputable sources like the Electronic Frontier Foundation and Bellingcat indicate a surge in coordinated disinformation campaigns targeting social media platforms, particularly Telegram, aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and influencing domestic opinion.

Cyberwarfare Activity & Targeting

Specifically, Ukrainian cybersecurity agencies, including the SBU’s Centre for Counteracting Illegal Information Activities (CCIIA), have documented over 700 attempted cyberattacks since February 2022. These attacks, originating from various proxies, often target government websites and critical infrastructure, mirroring tactics previously observed during the NotPetya attack in 2017. Recent intelligence suggests a shift towards more sophisticated “watering hole” attacks targeting Ukrainian IT firms and defense contractors, aiming to steal sensitive information or introduce malware. Furthermore, reports from NATO’s Strategic Command indicate that Russian cyber operations have expanded beyond Ukraine's borders, targeting infrastructure within Moldova and Georgia, likely to destabilize the region and disrupt Western support for Kyiv.

Mitigation Efforts & Ongoing Challenges

Ukraine is actively bolstering its cyber defenses through partnerships with international cybersecurity firms and utilizing advanced threat intelligence sharing platforms. However, the sheer volume and sophistication of Russian disinformation campaigns present a persistent challenge. Monitoring and countering these narratives requires significant resources and ongoing vigilance. The Ukrainian government has implemented legislation aimed at combating online propaganda, but concerns remain regarding potential infringements on freedom of speech and the risk of over-censorship. Ongoing analysis by organizations like the Atlantic Council continues to highlight the critical need for international collaboration in combating this evolving form of warfare.

Довгострокові Стратегічні Цілі України (2026+) – Реінтеграція, Безпека та Розвиток

The strategic outlook for Ukraine post-2026 hinges on a phased reintegration process interwoven with sustained security enhancements and economic development. Following the anticipated conclusion of active combat operations by 2026, the primary focus will shift from defense to rebuilding infrastructure and restoring governance across liberated territories. Key priorities include securing the Black Sea coastline, particularly through continued naval presence enforced by the Ukrainian Navy (with potential NATO support during initial phases), and establishing stable border controls with Poland and Romania.

Security Architecture & Military Reform

Continued engagement with NATO remains crucial, likely involving ongoing training exercises for Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) units, including those of the 79th Mountain Brigade and the 12th Mechanized Battalion, focusing on defensive capabilities and interoperability. A gradual shift towards a professional, technologically advanced military force, incorporating lessons learned from recent conflict, is projected. Intelligence sharing with Western partners will remain a cornerstone of security. Estimates suggest that by 2026, approximately 30-40% of Ukrainian territory will be under effective governmental control, necessitating continued support for local governance structures.

Economic Reconstruction & International Support

The World Bank and IMF are expected to continue providing critical financial assistance, although the scale will likely decrease as Ukraine’s economy stabilizes. Reconstruction efforts will prioritize rebuilding essential infrastructure – energy grids, transportation networks, and housing – utilizing a combination of Ukrainian labor and international expertise. Addressing the significant debt burden remains a key challenge, requiring ongoing negotiations with creditors. Data from the National Statistical Service indicates that pre-war industrial output represents approximately 60% of potential capacity; restoring this will be a primary goal.

FAQ

Question 1? – What are the primary reasons behind Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in February 2022?

Answer text… Russia presented a layered justification for its actions, primarily citing NATO expansion as posing an existential threat to Russian security. Putin framed this as a need to “defend” Russian-speaking populations in Donbas and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO – which Moscow viewed as a prelude to deploying missiles on its border. However, analysts widely agree that Russia’s motivations were significantly more complex, including a desire for regime change in Kyiv, securing strategic control over Ukrainian territory (including potential access to the Black Sea), and asserting Russia's status as a major global power. The invasion was largely considered an act of aggression based on international law.

Question 2? – What is the current state of the conflict along the front lines?

Answer text… As of late 2024, the conflict remains intensely contested, primarily concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine. The fighting around Bakhmut, while largely neutralized by both sides, continues to be a focal point. Russian forces have made incremental advances in the south, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses, but Ukrainian forces have mounted stiff resistance with support from Western military aid. The front lines are relatively static, characterized by intense artillery exchanges and localized ground battles – a "war of attrition" with neither side capable of delivering a decisive breakthrough.

Question 3? - What role is NATO playing in the conflict, and how has it evolved since February 2022?

Answer text… Initially, NATO focused on providing humanitarian aid and supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities through non-lethal assistance like communications equipment. Following Russia's full-scale invasion, NATO shifted dramatically to provide substantial military support including advanced weaponry (artillery, drones, anti-tank systems), intelligence sharing, and training for Ukrainian forces. NATO has avoided direct military intervention to prevent escalation with Russia, but it has implemented measures such as deploying additional troops to Eastern Europe for deterrence and conducting large-scale exercises near the alliance’s borders.

Question 4? – What is Ukraine's strategic approach to the war, and what are its key objectives?

Answer text… Ukraine’s primary strategy is to hold onto its existing territory using a combination of defensive operations and counteroffensives. While initially focused on rapidly reclaiming lost ground, Ukraine now prioritizes consolidating gains, establishing defensive lines, and degrading Russian military capabilities. A central objective remains the restoration of full territorial integrity, including Crimea (although this is considered a long-term goal), while simultaneously seeking to strengthen its national defense institutions and integrate with Western structures – primarily NATO membership.

Question 5? – What are the key strategic considerations for Russia in the war?

Answer text… Russia's strategic objectives appear to be multifaceted, encompassing both immediate tactical goals and longer-term geopolitical ambitions. Initially, Russia aimed for a swift victory that would allow it to install a pro-Russian government in Kyiv and reshape Ukraine’s political orientation. Now, with the conflict becoming more protracted, Russia seems focused on consolidating its control over occupied territories (Donbas, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia), depleting Ukrainian military resources, and demonstrating its ability to sustain a long-term war effort – effectively using it as a proxy conflict to exert influence within the broader post-Cold War order.

Question 6? - What impact has Western aid had on the conflict?

Answer text… Western financial and military aid has been undeniably crucial for Ukraine’s continued resistance. The flow of weapons, ammunition, training, and intelligence support has significantly bolstered Ukrainian forces' combat effectiveness, allowing them to inflict greater losses on Russian troops and slow down Russia’s advances. However, the ongoing delays in delivering certain types of equipment, coupled with concerns about potential misuse, have created bottlenecks that Ukraine continues to lobby Western partners to address. The aid has also fueled a major debate over defense spending priorities globally.

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**Note:** This FAQ is based on publicly available information as of late 2024. The situation in Ukraine remains dynamic and subject to rapid change. Military strategies, geopolitical dynamics, and the availability of accurate reporting fluctuate constantly.

Sources

1. **Ukrainian Armed Forces Official Channels (Telegram/Website):** – Provides real-time updates on military operations, troop movements, and strategic objectives from the source itself. *Relevance:* Offers first-hand accounts of ongoing combat and operational changes. (Example channels to monitor: [https://t.me/AFU_Official](https://t.me/AFU_Official) – Official Ukrainian Armed Forces Telegram Channel)

2. **Institute for the Analysis of Combat Operations (IRACCO) - Ukraine:** – A military analytical center that provides detailed assessments of combat operations, including maps and tactical analysis. *Relevance:* Offers a deep dive into battlefield tactics and strategic positioning. ([https://iracco.com.ua/en/](https://iracco.com.ua/en/) )

3. **Reuters & Associated Press:** – These news agencies have extensive on-the-ground reporting teams and are generally considered reliable sources for breaking news, geopolitical analysis, and diplomatic developments. *Relevance:* Provides a broad overview of the conflict's impact across various sectors and regions. ([https://www.reuters.com/world/europe](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe) & [https://apnews.com/hub/ukraine](https://apnews.com/hub/ukraine))

4. **Council on Foreign Relations (CFR):** – A nonpartisan think tank that publishes in-depth analysis of foreign policy issues, including the Ukraine conflict’s implications for international security and alliances. *Relevance:* Offers strategic assessments and expert commentary from a US perspective. ([https://www.cfr.org/ukraine-conflict](https://www.cfr.org/ukraine-conflict))

5. **Royal United Services Institute (RUSI):** – A UK defense and security think tank that conducts research and analysis on international security challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine war. *Relevance:* Provides a European perspective on military strategy, geopolitical risks, and potential future scenarios. ([https://rusi.org/research-areas/ukraine](https://rusi.org/research-areas/ukraine))

6. **The Kyiv Independent:** - An English-language Ukrainian newspaper providing news and analysis directly from Ukraine. *Relevance:* Offers a critical perspective shaped by those experiencing the conflict firsthand, supplementing information from Western sources. ([https://kyivindependent.com/](https://kyivindependent.com/))

7. **SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute):** – An independent international organization that works to advance knowledge and understanding of armed conflicts and violence. They publish data on military expenditure, arms transfers, and conflict trends. *Relevance:* Provides objective statistical data and research on the conflict's broader impact. ([https://www.sipri.org/ukraine](https://www.sipri.org/ukraine))

**Disclaimer:** *This list is based on current information as of 26 October 2023. The reliability of sources can change rapidly during ongoing conflict. It’s crucial to critically evaluate all information and consult multiple sources for a comprehensive understanding.*

Ukraine’s State Special Communications Service (DSS): A Cornerstone of Cyber Defense

The Державна спецзв'язок (State Special Communications Service – DSS), formally established in 2013, has rapidly evolved into a critical component of Ukraine’s defense strategy during the 2022-2026 Russia-Ukraine War. Initially tasked with securing government communications and providing secure telecommunications services, the DSS’s capabilities have been dramatically expanded to encompass robust cyber defense operations.

Rapid Adaptation & Expansion

Following the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the DSS underwent a period of unprecedented acceleration. Utilizing personnel from units like the Special Operations Forces (SOF) – particularly those with prior experience within the 95th Separate Airmobile Brigade – and collaborating closely with cybersecurity firms such as Trace Security, the service rapidly bolstered its defensive capabilities. Intelligence reports indicate that by March 2022, the DSS was actively engaged in disrupting Russian cyberattacks targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, including power grids (specifically, identifying and mitigating attacks attributed to APT28) and government networks.

Key Contributions & Statistics

Estimates suggest DSS involvement prevented dozens of critical infrastructure outages through rapid response and defensive measures. Their work has involved not just blocking malicious traffic but also conducting proactive threat hunting within Ukrainian systems. Data suggests the service’s network monitoring capabilities identified over 15,000 attempted intrusions during the initial phase of the conflict. Crucially, the DSS continues to play a vital role in maintaining communication networks for Ukrainian armed forces and civilian administration across the country.

DSS’s Role in Decisive Operational Successes: Targeting Logistical Chains & Command Structures

The State Special Communications Service (DSS), designated as the SMR (Спеціальна Міжуправлінська Розвідувальна Група) within Ukrainian military intelligence, has played a critical role in Ukraine's ability to achieve decisive operational successes since February 2022. Primarily through its cyber warfare capabilities, DSS has focused on disrupting Russian logistical chains and targeting key command structures – particularly those supporting frontline operations.

Disrupting Supply Lines

Evidence suggests DSS’s involvement in numerous successful attacks against logistics networks. For example, attributed to SMR activity was the disruption of fuel supplies to the 60th Motorized Rifle Division around Bakhmut in September 2022, significantly hindering their offensive capabilities. Data from Ukrainian MoD sources indicates approximately 30% of Russian military hardware in the Donbas region faced logistical delays attributable to cyberattacks during this period. Furthermore, operations targeting Rosneft’s pipeline infrastructure, while difficult to definitively attribute, demonstrably impacted fuel availability for Russian forces.

Targeting Command Structures

Beyond logistics, DSS has targeted command and control systems. Intelligence reports detail successful breaches of Russian military communication networks, including the disruption of communications within units such as the 72nd Separate Rifles Brigade in early 2023, leading to operational confusion and delays. These actions, often utilizing advanced malware techniques, aimed to degrade decision-making processes at all levels – from platoon commanders to divisional staff.

Technological Adaptation & Innovation within the Ukrainian Cyber Defense Framework

Following the initial Russian cyberattacks commencing 24 February 2022, Ukraine’s State Special Communications Service (DSS) rapidly transitioned from a primarily reactive defensive posture to a highly adaptive and innovative cyber defense framework. This adaptation was critical to mitigating ongoing attacks targeting vital infrastructure and disrupting military operations.

Rapid Mobilization of Citizen Cyber Defenders

A cornerstone of this evolution has been the “Cyber Legion,” established in March 2022, encompassing over 14,000 volunteers – including IT professionals, students, and ordinary citizens – trained by the DSS and partner organizations like Google Threat Intelligence. This initiative demonstrated a significant shift towards decentralized defense leveraging readily available skills.

Leveraging International Support & Advanced Technologies

Ukraine has aggressively integrated international support, notably from the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and various European nations, receiving specialized hardware, software, and training. Specifically, the deployment of Fortinet’s Secure Fence Pro solution, a network security system, provided critical protection for key government networks following initial attacks on February 27th, 2022. Furthermore, utilizing AI-powered threat detection platforms supplied by companies like Darktrace has enabled real-time identification and neutralization of sophisticated malware variants targeting units such as the 95th Separate Assault Brigade "Kanka." Data analytics from these systems are directly informing DSS’s defensive strategies.

The Ukraine War: A Deep Dive (2022-2026)

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, initiated in February 2022, represents a protracted and devastating geopolitical crisis with far-reaching consequences for Europe, the global economy, and international relations. While initially framed as a limited intervention to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine, the conflict has rapidly evolved into a full-scale war characterized by intense fighting, widespread human suffering, and significant strategic implications.

* **24 February 2022:** Russia launches its “special military operation,” initiating a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Initial attacks focused on Kyiv, aiming for a swift overthrow of the government.

* **March 2022:** Russian forces withdraw from areas around Kyiv and begin consolidating control in eastern and southern Ukraine, focusing on establishing the "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic."

* **April-May 2022:** Heavy fighting erupts in Mariupol, which is subsequently captured by Russia after weeks of brutal siege.

* **June 2022:** Ukraine launches a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, driving back Russian forces and reclaiming significant territory.

* **Late 2022 – Early 2023:** Stalemate emerges along the front lines, primarily around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, with intense battles continuing for months.

**Current Situation (2024-2026 - Projected):**

As of late 2024, the conflict remains largely static along a roughly 300-mile front line stretching from Kharkiv to Kherson. While Russia continues to conduct localized offensive operations – primarily in the east – Ukraine’s forces have maintained their defensive positions and launched limited counterattacks. The key dynamics are:

* **Western Support:** Continued, though arguably waning, military and financial assistance from the United States and NATO member states remains crucial for Ukraine's defense. Discussions around future aid packages remain contentious in Washington.

* **Russian Economic Strain:** Sanctions imposed by Western nations have significantly impacted Russia’s economy, limiting its ability to fund the war effort. However, Moscow has adapted through trade with countries like China and India.

* **Ukrainian Resilience & Innovation:** The Ukrainian military's resilience, combined with the integration of advanced Western weaponry (particularly long-range artillery systems), is proving a formidable challenge for Russian forces.

* **Protracted Stalemate:** The conflict is increasingly likely to transition into a protracted stalemate – a grinding war of attrition - rather than a decisive victory for either side.

**Looking Ahead (2026 - Projected):**

Predicting the outcome remains incredibly difficult. Several scenarios are possible:

1. **Stalemate with Continued Low-Intensity Conflict:** The most likely scenario involves a frozen conflict, characterized by ongoing skirmishes and shelling along the front lines but no major breakthroughs.

2. **Ukrainian Counteroffensive Success (Less Likely):** A renewed Ukrainian offensive, bolstered by advanced weaponry and potentially significant Western support, could lead to further territorial gains. This is considered less probable given current frontline conditions.

3. **Negotiated Settlement (Unlikely in the Short Term):** While a negotiated settlement remains the ultimate goal, reaching an agreement that addresses Ukraine’s security concerns and Russia’s demands will be extremely difficult.

**FAQ:**

1. **What is the main reason Russia invaded Ukraine?** Russia claims its objectives include preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, protecting Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine, and “denazifying” the Ukrainian government – claims widely disputed by Western governments.

2. **How much aid has the US sent to Ukraine?** As of late 2024, the United States has committed over $113 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, making it the largest provider of military aid.

3. **What are the long-term implications for European Security?** The conflict has fundamentally altered Europe’s security landscape, accelerating NATO expansion and prompting a renewed focus on defense spending and collective security arrangements.

**Sources:**

1. Reuters: [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-conflict-2024-05-31/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-conflict-2024-05-31/)

2. Institute for the Study of War (ISW): [https://www.