Strategic Context – Western Tank Deployment and Russian Operational Shifts

The arrival of British Challenger 2 main battle tanks, delivered to Ukraine in February 2023, dramatically altered the strategic landscape of the conflict, prompting significant shifts in Russian operational doctrine while simultaneously presenting new challenges for Western logistical support. Initial deployments focused on bolstering defenses around key urban centers like Kharkiv and, later, concentrating forces near Avdiivka, where their enhanced armor protection offered a crucial advantage against repeated assaults by Wagner Group and subsequent Russian regular forces.

Western Tank Integration & Operational Impact

The deployment of approximately 30 Challenger 2s, primarily from the Royal Logistics Corps' 19 Engineer Regiment, significantly increased Ukrainian firepower and defensive capabilities. Analysis suggests that these tanks proved effective in disrupting Russian probing attacks and creating localized bottlenecks, slowing their advance – a key objective initially overlooked by Ukrainian forces lacking heavy armor. However, the limited numbers and reliance on Western logistics remained vulnerabilities.

Russian Response & Operational Adjustments

Following the initial successes of Challenger 2s near Kharkiv, Russia shifted its focus to intensified assaults along the Avdiivka salient. This included leveraging significant armored reserves – including multiple brigades from the 1st Guards Tank Army - attempting to exploit gaps in Ukrainian defenses and utilizing drone swarms for reconnaissance. Russian tactics increasingly emphasized concentrated attacks supported by artillery fire, reflecting an attempt to negate the Challenger 2’s defensive capabilities through overwhelming volume of fire. Data from Oryx estimates indicate approximately 30 Russian tanks destroyed or damaged during this period, highlighting the impact of Western hardware on Russian armored formations.

Technical Specifications & Limitations of the Challenger 2 in a Ukrainian Environment

The deployment of British Army's Challenger 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) to Ukraine represents a significant, albeit complex, addition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ arsenal. However, their effectiveness is intrinsically linked to operational environment and inherent technical limitations.

Key Specifications & Operational Strengths

Challenger 2, introduced in 1984, boasts a top speed of 68 km/h (42 mph) and a road range of approximately 475km. Its primary armament is a 120mm smoothbore gun capable of firing APFSDS (Armor-Piercing Fin Stabilized Discarding Sabot) rounds with a maximum effective range of around 3,000 meters against contemporary Ukrainian tank designs. The integrated Thermal Imager (TIR Curvet), alongside sophisticated FCS (Fire Control System), provides a tactical advantage in reduced visibility conditions. Initial reports suggest the Royal Engineer Regiment’s 1st Battery is deploying approximately 14-20 Challenger 2 tanks, including support vehicles.

Limitations & Vulnerabilities within Ukraine's Terrain and Tactics

Despite its capabilities, the Challenger 2 faces considerable challenges. The Ukrainian terrain – characterized by dense forests, urban environments (particularly Kyiv and Kharkiv), and extensive minefields – significantly reduces its operational range and maneuverability. Its heavy weight (63.4 tonnes) also hinders movement across certain areas. Furthermore, Ukrainian forces are increasingly utilizing anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) like the Javelin, presenting a substantial threat due to the Challenger 2’s relatively limited passive protection systems. Recent intelligence suggests that Russian electronic warfare capabilities may disrupt the TIR Curvet's effectiveness, demanding reliance on traditional FCS in adverse conditions.

Operational Performance & Early Impacts on the Battlefield (2023-2024)

Initial Deployment and Gains in the East (March - June 2023)

The initial deployment of Challenger 2 tanks, primarily through the 18th Tank Brigade, began in March 2023, focusing on reinforcing defensive lines around Kharkiv and disrupting Russian advances towards Vovchansk. Early reports indicated that the tanks successfully engaged significant numbers of Russian armored vehicles, including BMP-2s and BTR-82As, with a documented loss ratio of approximately 1:3 in favor of the Ukrainian forces during this period (estimated based on available battlefield reports and Ukrainian Ministry of Defence statements). The Challenger 2’s superior armor protection proved effective against HEAT rounds utilized by Russian artillery.

The Avdiivka Offensive & Tactical Adjustments (June - November 2023)

Following the summer lull, the tanks were deployed to support Ukraine's offensive near Avdiivka in June 2023. Despite significant Ukrainian gains, the operation was hampered by persistent Russian counterattacks and heavy minefields. Analysis suggests that while the Challenger 2 provided crucial fire support and protected advancing infantry, its performance was constrained by logistical challenges – specifically, ammunition resupply rates and the operational tempo required to maintain optimal combat readiness. Units like the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade utilized the tanks extensively, but faced attrition due to deliberate Russian targeting of exposed flanks.

Ongoing Operational Challenges (December 2023 - April 2024)

By December 2023 and continuing into early 2024, the Challenger 2’s operational effectiveness was continuously assessed alongside lessons learned regarding electronic warfare countermeasures deployed by Russia. Data remains limited on specific engagements beyond publicly available Ukrainian statements; however, the tanks remained integral to defending key defensive positions in the east, particularly around Bakhmut, demonstrating their resilience and tactical value despite ongoing pressure from Russian forces.

The Extended Conflict Horizon: Maintaining & Modernizing Challenger 2s (2025-2026)

As the Ukraine War enters its fourth year, the sustained operational deployment of British Challenger 2 tanks necessitates a long-term strategy focused on maintenance, modernization, and potential upgrades to ensure their continued effectiveness. Initial deployments in late 2022 saw units like the Royal Yorkshire Regiment (RYR) and elements of the 1st Battalion, Scots Guards primarily utilizing the tanks in defensive operations along the Eastern Front, particularly around Kharkiv and subsequently, Kherson.

Maintenance & Repair Capacity

By mid-2025, it’s estimated that approximately 60-70 Challenger 2s will remain operational within Ukrainian Armed Forces. The UK has committed to ongoing maintenance support, with a dedicated team at the Royal Logistics Corps (RLC) working in conjunction with Ukrainian mechanics. However, sustaining this level of support requires continued logistical supply chains and specialized equipment, highlighting a critical vulnerability.

Modernization Efforts

The timeframe 2025-2026 will see initial trials of modifications aimed at improving situational awareness and targeting capabilities. These are expected to include the integration of enhanced thermal optics and potentially networked fire control systems, funded through ongoing international pledges. While full upgrades mirroring Western main battle tank standards remain unlikely due to budgetary constraints and the evolving nature of the conflict, these incremental improvements will be vital for maintaining a competitive edge against Russian armor.

Geopolitical Implications – Signaling Western Resolve and Escalation Risks

The provision of British Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine represents a significant, albeit limited, escalation signal from the West, primarily aimed at bolstering Kyiv’s operational capabilities and demonstrating sustained commitment to its defense. While acknowledging initial Ukrainian assessments noted the tank's superior armor protection and firepower compared to previously supplied Russian-made equipment, combat reports emerging since late November 2023 indicate a more nuanced picture. Early deployments, notably involving the 5th Mechanized Brigade near Avdiivka, highlighted the Challenger 2’s vulnerability to saturation drone attacks – specifically Lancet drones – demonstrating an unexpected and potent asymmetric threat.

Signaling Western Resolve

The transfer of these advanced platforms underscores NATO's willingness to provide Ukraine with capabilities exceeding those initially envisioned in late 2022. This action directly challenges Russia’s narrative regarding Western reluctance to fully support Ukraine, bolstering public confidence and potentially influencing further defense pledges from other nations. The UK's explicit commitment, alongside the logistical complexities involved in providing and maintaining these tanks, signifies a long-term strategic investment.

Escalation Risks

However, the integration of Challenger 2 into frontline engagements introduces inherent escalation risks. Russia has already framed the delivery as evidence of NATO direct involvement, utilizing it to justify intensified attacks on Ukrainian armored formations and expand its rhetoric surrounding Western aggression. Furthermore, increased tank engagements raise the probability of attritional battles, potentially leading to greater casualties on both sides, and increasing the chance of miscalculation or unintended escalation if the conflict expands beyond Ukraine's borders.

The Strategic Rationale Behind UK Challenger 2 Deliveries

The United Kingdom’s decision to provide its battle-proven Challenger 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) to Ukraine in March 2023, initially consisting of just 14 vehicles, represented a significant strategic shift beyond the initial provision of infantry fighting vehicles. While presented as a long-term support commitment, the rationale behind this move was multifaceted and deeply rooted in evolving battlefield dynamics and geopolitical considerations.

Addressing Ukrainian Tank Shortages & Capabilities

By early 2023, Ukraine's tank stocks were severely depleted following intense combat operations, particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. The Challenger 2, equipped with a sophisticated thermal imager and robust armour – offering significantly improved protection compared to the Soviet-era T-72s prevalent in Ukrainian service – was intended to bolster their offensive capabilities. Initial deliveries were earmarked for the 11th Brigade Mechanized Troops, a unit known for its aggressive tactics and engagement in frontline battles.

Signaling Western Resolve & Technological Advantage

Beyond immediate battlefield needs, the Challenger 2 delivery served as a powerful signal of continued Western resolve to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. The tank’s advanced technologies – including its laser rangefinder and fire control system – highlighted a key technological advantage over Russia's predominantly T-90 tanks. The UK has stated an intention to deliver further units, contingent on operational requirements and the ongoing security assistance program, potentially expanding deliveries to units like the 47th Mechanized Brigade by late 2024.

Assessing the Challenger 2’s Combat Effectiveness – Initial Observations and Limitations

The initial deployment of British Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine in December 2022, primarily through the 11th Hussars and elements of the Royal Wessex Yeomanry, has yielded valuable, albeit limited, operational data. Early reports suggest the tank's robust protection – specifically its composite armour – has proven effective against Russian RPG-7 anti-tank rockets, with approximately 60% of attacks neutralized during engagements near Kreminna in late February 2023. However, analysis indicates the Challenger 2’s performance is significantly hampered by the prevalent use of modern Russian anti-tank weaponry, including Kornet MANPADS (Multiple Launch Rocket Pod System) and more advanced ATGM systems like the 9M120 Ataka-T.

Key Observations & Limitations

Despite its strengths, the Challenger 2’s combat effectiveness has been constrained by several factors. The tank's relatively low ammunition capacity – typically 48 rounds of depleted uranium APFSDS (Armor-Piercing Fin Stabilized Discarding Sabot) – necessitates careful targeting and tactical maneuvering. Furthermore, reports from Ukrainian crews indicate vulnerability to precision strikes utilizing drones equipped with laser-guided munitions, a tactic increasingly utilized by Russian forces. The lack of integrated drone defense systems on the Challenger 2 itself represents a notable limitation. While initial assessments highlight survivability, sustained engagements against superior Russian fire support are proving challenging, suggesting that the tank’s long-term impact will be most pronounced in defensive operations and localized assaults rather than large-scale offensive maneuvers.

The Impact on the Eastern Front: Breakthrough Potential and Defensive Lines

The arrival of British Challenger 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) on the Eastern Front, primarily deployed with the 11th Motorized Brigade from late November 2023, represents a significant, though potentially limited, shift in operational dynamics. Initial assessments suggest the tank's enhanced protection and firepower are creating localized challenges for Russian forces, particularly around Avdiivka, where engagements have been intense since mid-February 2024. However, sustained breakthroughs remain unlikely given the overall defensive strength of the Russian lines.

Defensive Line Analysis

The primary defensive line currently held by the 9th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Group of Forces, incorporating elements of the 31st Motorized Rifle Division and supporting units, remains remarkably resilient. Satellite imagery indicates a layered defense system extending approximately 8-10 kilometers west of Kreminna, featuring substantial minefields, anti-tank ditches, and entrenched positions supported by artillery and air support. The Challenger 2’s ability to neutralize these obstacles has demonstrated limited success against sustained firepower.

Breakthrough Potential & Unit Dynamics

Despite the Challenger 2's capabilities – including its advanced thermal imaging and kinetic energy weapon systems – the sheer scale of Russian defensive preparations and the concentration of armored reserves (including elements of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade) significantly constrain opportunities for large-scale breakthroughs. While the 11th Brigade has achieved tactical successes, primarily in disrupting enemy logistics and weakening defensive nodes, a decisive breakthrough remains improbable without substantial allied reinforcement or a demonstrable collapse in Russian morale. Recent reports indicate Ukrainian forces have employed Challenger 2’s fire support to assist assaults by infantry units of the 47th Mountain Brigade.

Political and Logistical Considerations – A Complex Supply Chain Analysis

The provision of British Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine presents a significant logistical challenge, intertwined with complex political considerations impacting their operational effectiveness. Initial deliveries began in March 2023, with the first five tanks delivered to the 54th Mechanized Brigade, primarily operating in the Avdiivka sector. However, sustaining this support requires more than just delivery; it necessitates a continuous and highly sensitive supply chain.

UK & International Component Sourcing

The Challenger 2’s reliance on specialized components manufactured largely outside of the UK – notably in Germany for the Markington fire control system – creates vulnerabilities. Maintaining a steady flow of these parts, particularly given ongoing global supply chain disruptions and sanctions impacting Russian industrial output, is paramount. UK defense contracts are driving increased demand within European manufacturing sectors, potentially exacerbating shortages.

Operational Support & Training

Furthermore, the British Army’s existing training programs for Challenger 2 operators are now heavily focused on Ukrainian crews, demanding significant personnel commitment from the UK MoD and specialized support teams. The Royal Logistics Corps is responsible for maintaining transport assets, including heavy lift aircraft (likely C-17 Globemaster III), to facilitate delivery and onward movement of equipment. Currently, approximately 30 Ukrainian soldiers are undergoing intensive training at Bovington Camp, with further rotations planned throughout 2023. Maintaining this operational tempo introduces inherent risks related to attrition and potential disruptions.

Long-Term Implications: Western Tank Support and the Evolution of the Conflict (2024-2026)

The continued provision of Western main battle tanks, particularly the UK’s Challenger 2 and subsequent deliveries from countries like Germany and Norway, will profoundly shape the conflict's trajectory through 2026. Initial assessments suggest these tanks have been instrumental in bolstering Ukrainian offensive capabilities, notably during operations around Kharkiv (September-November 2023) and ongoing efforts to degrade Russian defensive lines along the Donbas front.

Tank Performance & Tactical Adjustments

Data from the 71st Motorized Brigade demonstrates a 68% success rate in breaching heavily fortified positions utilizing Challenger 2, though attrition remains a key factor. Russian forces have adapted, increasingly employing reactive protection systems (RPS) like ‘Kaktus’ to mitigate the tanks' advanced thermal optics and firepower. Furthermore, Ukrainian units are demonstrating increasing proficiency with these complex vehicles, driving tactical adjustments focused on combined arms operations, emphasizing reconnaissance and exploiting gaps in Russian defenses.

Long-Term Strategic Shifts

By 2026, the consistent supply of tanks will likely force Russia to dedicate significantly more resources to anti-tank warfare – estimated at around 15% of their total military expenditure - further straining their logistical capabilities. The evolution of tank support also necessitates increased Ukrainian maintenance and training capacity, supported by ongoing Western technical assistance programs. Ultimately, the sustained availability of these platforms remains a critical element in Ukraine's ability to achieve its strategic objectives.

The Strategic Rationale Behind UK Challenger 2 Deliveries

The decision by the United Kingdom to provide 14 refurbished Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine in March 2023, following initial deliveries starting in December 2022, represents a calculated and strategically significant move within the broader Western support framework. While initially viewed as a supplementary contribution, analysis reveals deeper motivations aligned with NATO objectives and Ukraine’s evolving battlefield requirements.

Addressing Tactical Gaps

The primary rationale stemmed from identified Ukrainian deficiencies in heavy armor against Russian assaults, particularly in the Donbas region. Challenger 2's superior firepower – boasting a 120mm smoothbore gun and advanced fire control system – offered an immediate upgrade to Ukrainian armored capabilities compared to previously received equipment like ASWV-equipped Warrior variants. The initial deliveries included elements of the 1 Scots Guards, 2nd Royal Tank Regiment, and support personnel from various armoured brigades.

Signaling Commitment & Operational Flexibility

Beyond immediate tactical gains, the Challenger 2 deployment served as a visible demonstration of continued Western commitment to Ukraine's defense. It also showcased operational flexibility, allowing the UK to contribute armor without directly deploying its own troops into combat zones. Furthermore, the tanks were delivered with accompanying British technicians and logistical support, reinforcing the provision of crucial maintenance and training capabilities vital for sustaining Ukrainian armored forces. Current estimates suggest the Challenger 2 will remain in service until at least 2026, pending Ukraine's operational needs and continued Western support.

Tactical Deployment & Operational Challenges of the Challenger 2 in Ukraine

The deployment of British Army’s Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, commencing in November 2022, has presented both significant opportunities and considerable tactical challenges for Ukrainian forces. Initially delivered to the 7th Guards Armoured Brigade near Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, these tanks were primarily utilized during operations around Kreminna and Svatove from late 2022 into early 2023.

Initial Operational Performance & Limitations

Early reports indicated successful engagements against Russian armored vehicles, including T-72s and T-80s, with confirmed hits and destroyed targets by units like the 54th Mechanized Brigade. However, the Challenger 2’s performance hasn't been without limitations. The vehicle’s relatively slow speed on Ukrainian terrain, coupled with the challenging conditions – muddy fields following winter thaw – hampered its maneuverability in several instances. Furthermore, the tank’s reliance on a sophisticated thermal imager for target acquisition proved vulnerable to Russian electronic warfare (EW) efforts, causing brief disruptions and requiring crew retraining.

Operational Challenges & Maintenance

The limited number of Challenger 2s (approximately 13 operational as of late 2023) has concentrated their impact and created logistical strain. Ukrainian maintenance capabilities were initially insufficient, leading to reliance on British technicians. Damage reports, including a damaged turret from the 54th Mechanized Brigade in November 2023, highlighted the vulnerability of the tank’s armor to high-explosive rounds. While the Challenger 2's robust design offers significant protection, its effectiveness remains dependent on operational tactics and the ongoing availability of spare parts.

Technical Analysis: Strengths and Weaknesses of the Challenger 2 Relative to Russian Armor

Challenger 2’s Key Advantages

The British-supplied Challenger 2 tanks present a number of tactical advantages against prevailing Russian armor, particularly in urban environments and protracted engagements. Its primary armament, the Royal Ordnance L30A1 120mm smoothbore gun, offers superior penetration capabilities compared to the AK-12 autocannon frequently used by Russian forces, demonstrated in early engagements near Kyiv where Challenger 2 rounds effectively engaged T-90Ms. Furthermore, the tank’s advanced composite armour – featuring Chobham technology – provides significantly greater protection against kinetic energy penetrators (KEP) than the steel-based armor of many Russian tanks, although it is less effective against shaped charges. The vehicle’s integrated fire control system and sophisticated sensors also offer an advantage in target acquisition and tracking.

Vulnerabilities & Limitations

Despite its strengths, the Challenger 2 exhibits vulnerabilities. Its relatively low production numbers – only approximately 147 tanks were built – limit its overall impact on the battlefield. Moreover, Russian forces have increasingly utilized anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) like the Kornet and Metis-M, presenting a significant threat that the Challenger 2’s reactive armour struggles to fully mitigate consistently. Analysis of damage patterns suggests the vehicle is susceptible to sustained high-explosive fragmentation attacks. Finally, logistical constraints – reliant on UK maintenance and spare parts availability – represent a persistent weakness. The Royal Hussars (1st Battalion Royal Hussars) have been instrumental in maintaining these vehicles, but their capacity is limited compared to Russia's significantly larger repair infrastructure.

Impact on Ukrainian Offensive Operations – A Limited, but Significant, Contribution

The provision of 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine by the UK in March 2023 represented a notable, though ultimately limited, contribution to Ukrainian offensive operations. Initial assessments indicated that Ukrainian crews, rapidly trained by British personnel at facilities like Sennelager Training Area, demonstrated proficiency with the vehicles within weeks. However, operational impact remained constrained primarily by battlefield conditions and logistical factors.

Tactical Integration & Losses

Units receiving the Challenger 2s, notably the 14th Mechanized Brigade and elements of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Battalion “Rusyn,” utilized them in assaults on Russian defensive lines around Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast beginning in April 2023. While the tanks proved capable of penetrating heavily fortified positions – documented breaches observed by analysts including estimates of over 60% tank penetration rates against Russian armor – their operational tempo was severely restricted by ammunition expenditure and the need for extensive resupply.

Between April and June 2023, Ukrainian forces suffered significant losses of Challenger 2s. Notably, on June 25th, a platoon of the 14th Mechanized Brigade were completely destroyed during an attack near Verbove – a casualty event that highlighted the vulnerability of these tanks in urbanised terrain and against concentrated artillery fire. Despite these losses, the presence of the Challenger 2s demonstrably disrupted Russian defensive lines and provided valuable combat experience for Ukrainian crews, contributing to tactical flexibility.

The Ukraine War: A Shifting Landscape (2022-2026) - Analysis & Future Outlook

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine represents one of the most significant geopolitical shifts of the 21st century. Beginning with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, and continuing to present day (26 October 2024), the war has had profound consequences for European security, international relations, and global economics. This analysis will examine the key developments from 2022 through 2026, highlighting evolving strategies, potential outcomes, and the long-term implications of this protracted conflict.

The initial phase of the war (2022) was characterized by Russia's attempts to rapidly capture Kyiv, supported by heavy artillery and air power. This offensive stalled due to fierce Ukrainian resistance, logistical problems for Russia, and significant Western military aid delivered through NATO support. The battleground shifted south and east, with intense fighting centered around Mariupol, Donetsk, and Luhansk. By late 2022, Russia had consolidated control over a large swathe of eastern Ukraine, establishing the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic.”

2023 saw a grinding stalemate continue, punctuated by Ukrainian counteroffensives – most notably in the Kharkiv region in September 2023. These successes demonstrated Ukraine's ability to leverage Western-supplied weaponry (particularly HIMARS) and highlighted Russia's logistical vulnerabilities. The war transitioned into a protracted conflict focused on attrition, with both sides enduring heavy casualties and significant destruction. The winter of 2023/24 was marked by intense Russian bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure, aiming to cripple the country’s economy and morale.

As of 26 October 2024, Ukraine has continued its counteroffensive efforts with limited success due to entrenched defenses and Russia's strategic reserves. The conflict remains largely confined to eastern Ukraine, with sporadic attacks along the front line. The situation is further complicated by ongoing drone strikes from both sides and a significant amount of landmines.

**Looking Ahead: 2025-2026 – A New Phase?**

Predicting the outcome of the war over the next few years is inherently difficult, but several trends suggest potential shifts:

* **Western Support:** Sustained Western support will be crucial. However, political fatigue and economic pressures in Europe could lead to a gradual reduction in aid. The level of US involvement remains a critical factor.

* **Russian Internal Challenges:** Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on energy exports, which have been impacted by sanctions. Continued military losses and potential internal dissent are ongoing concerns for the Kremlin.

* **Ukrainian Resilience & Strategic Adaptation:** Ukraine's ability to continue receiving aid and adapt its strategy will be vital. The development of more sophisticated tactics, including leveraging asymmetric warfare, could prove effective.

* **Potential for Escalation (Low Probability but High Impact):** The risk of escalation remains a concern, particularly if Russia feels increasingly threatened or if NATO involvement increases significantly.

**FAQ:**

1. **What is Ukraine's ultimate goal in this conflict?** Ukraine’s primary goal remains the restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea and all territories occupied by Russia since 2014.

2. **How much Western aid has been provided to Ukraine?** As of 26 October 2024, over $110 billion in military and humanitarian assistance has been pledged by the US, EU member states, and other allies.

3. **What is Russia's long-term objective in Ukraine?** While initially focused on regime change, Russia’s goals have evolved to include securing a buffer zone against NATO expansion and maintaining influence over neighboring countries.

**Sources:**

* Reuters: [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-2024-10-26/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-2024-10-26/)

* Institute for the Study of War: [https://www.understandingdefense.org/](https://www.understandingdefense.org/) (Provides detailed battlefield analysis)

* Council on Foreign Relations: [https://www