Ammunition Production Partnerships for Ukraine: Racing to Meet Battlefield Demand

The war in Ukraine has exposed a fundamental gap between NATO's peacetime ammunition production infrastructure and the demands of a sustained high-intensity conflict. Planning assumptions calibrated for short expeditionary campaigns proved catastrophically inadequate for a war consuming hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds monthly. The response — a multi-track international effort combining emergency procurement, production expansion, new facility construction, and joint ventures — is reshaping the global defense industry and illustrates the urgency of a challenge that could determine the war's outcome.

The Scale of Artillery Ammunition Consumption

At peak intensity during the 2023–2024 combined arms phases, Ukraine was firing 6,000–8,000 155mm artillery rounds per day. Russia was firing even more. NATO's entire annual production of 155mm shells in 2022 was approximately 300,000 — enough for roughly 50 days at peak Ukrainian consumption. This arithmetic drove emergency decisions to procure from any available global source, accelerate European factory expansions, and invest in new production facilities on a crash timeline. The 155mm shell became the central logistics obsession of NATO's political and military leadership.

The Czech Shell Initiative: 500,000 Shells

Czech President Petr Pavel's February 2024 announcement of a coalition to procure 500,000 shells for Ukraine by August 2024 — growing to 1.5–2 million annually — offered a pragmatic solution where EU production-expansion programs were still ramping up. By sourcing from non-EU producers (South Korea, Canada, Turkey, West African states, and others) and pooling European financing, the Czech initiative circumvented the EU's preference for sourcing from European industry. Over 15 countries joined the financing coalition. The first shipments arrived in spring 2024, and the initiative expanded to encompass 155mm, 152mm, and other calibers. Critics noted that buying from global markets did not address the underlying European production capacity problem, while proponents argued it delivered shells to Ukraine now rather than in two years.

EU ASAP: Act in Support of Ammunition Production

The EU's ASAP regulation — adopted in May 2023 — provides €500 million in EU funds specifically to ramp up European defense ammunition production capacity. ASAP supports manufacturers through grants and loans to expand facilities, hire workers, and acquire raw materials for shell production. Unlike the Czech initiative, ASAP is explicitly designed to build lasting European industrial capacity rather than simply procuring from existing global supply. The regulation requires that shells procured under ASAP are manufactured in EU or EEA countries, supporting the European defense industrial base. ASAP also funds joint procurement of shells for Ukraine, enabling member states to pool purchasing power and reduce unit costs.

Joint US-European Production

US-European cooperation on ammunition production has taken several forms. The US Army facilitated information sharing with European allies on production specifications for the M107 155mm round, enabling European manufacturers to produce shells fully interoperable with NATO artillery systems. Trans-Atlantic production sharing arrangements — where US companies provide propellant or fuse components while European partners provide shell bodies — create supply chain redundancy and efficiency. General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, Nammo (Norway-Finland), and Rheinmetall operate the most significant trans-Atlantic production partnership networks, with component flows crossing the Atlantic in both directions to optimize total production.

Rheinmetall Kertajärvi Expansion (Finland)

Rheinmetall announced a significant expansion of its Finnish subsidiary's production at the Kertajärvi facility in northern Finland in 2024. Finland joined NATO in April 2023, making this a fully within-Alliance investment. The Kertajärvi facility produces artillery shell bodies and propellant systems, with Rheinmetall's investment expanding annual capacity by approximately 100,000–150,000 155mm rounds. Finland's location near the Russian border, its extensive national defense industrial experience, and strong government support for ammunition production investment made it an attractive location. The facility's expansion aligns with Rheinmetall's broader European ammunition capacity buildup, which includes new or expanded facilities in Germany, Lithuania, Romania, and Ukraine itself.

The 2 Million Shell Target

European and US leaders collectively set an aspirational target of producing or procuring 2 million 155mm shells per year for Ukraine — approximately 5,500 per day, matching estimated Ukrainian peak consumption. Meeting this target requires fully realizing all current expansion programs simultaneously across US, European, and globally sourced production. As of early 2026, various estimates placed combined capacity at 1.2–1.6 million shells per year — significant progress from the 300,000 starting point but still short of the target. The 2026 full operational capacity of new facilities (Lithuania, Finland, Romania, expanded US plants) is expected to close the remainder of the gap.

Propellant and Raw Materials Bottlenecks

Increasing shell case production has exposed bottlenecks elsewhere in the supply chain. Artillery propellant — the explosive charge that fires the round — requires nitrocellulose and other chemical inputs whose production capacity is limited in NATO countries. Several NATO nations' propellant plants had been partially mothballed during the post-Cold War peace dividend era. Norway's Nammo and Germany's Rheinmetall have led propellant production expansion, but the chemical industry investment cycle (regulatory approvals, environmental impact assessments, capital construction) runs 3–5 years, creating a structural delay in matching propellant capacity to increased shell production.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 155mm artillery round and why is it so important?

The 155mm round is the standard NATO-caliber artillery shell used in howitzers like the M109 Paladin, Panzerhaubitze 2000, and Caesar. Ukraine operates dozens of these systems donated by allies, making 155mm the most critical ammunition type to supply.

Why couldn't NATO simply buy from US stockpiles?

US stockpiles were drawn down to supply Ukraine and to maintain US military readiness. The US war reserve requirement limits how much can be transferred without degrading US own combat capability.

How long does it take to build a new ammunition factory?

Typically 3–5 years from decision to full production. Emergency regulatory waivers and pre-engineered facility designs have compressed this to 18–30 months for some projects, but the bottleneck remains significant.

Does Ukraine produce its own 155mm shells?

Ukraine is developing domestic 155mm production, but as of early 2026 remains primarily dependent on international supply for this caliber. Ukraine has more extensive domestic production of Soviet-caliber ammunition (152mm, 122mm).

What other calibers are in high demand?

152mm (Soviet-standard howitzers), 122mm (BM-21 Grad), 120mm mortar rounds, and various drone-delivered munitions are all in high demand alongside 155mm. 152mm has been particularly challenging to source as the number of producing countries is limited.

Sources

1. European Commission, "ASAP Regulation — Official Journal," eur-lex.europa.eu, 2023.
2. Czech MFA, "Czech Shell Initiative Progress Reports," mzv.gov.cz, 2024.
3. Rheinmetall AG, "European Ammunition Capacity Expansion," rheinmetall.com, 2024.
4. IISS, "Global Artillery Ammunition Production Capacity," iiss.org, 2024.
5. Kiel Institute, "Ukraine Support Tracker — Ammunition Analysis," ifw-kiel.de, 2025.