Shahed Drone Technology & Capabilities

The Shahed series of drones, specifically the Shahed-136 and Shahed-131, represent a significant shift in Iran’s asymmetric warfare capabilities and are central to Ukraine's defense challenges. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are primarily cruise missiles delivered via drone, utilizing a combination of solid-propellant rocket motors and fixed-wing aerodynamic design for extended range and loiter times.

Production of the Shahed drones is believed to be heavily reliant on Iranian military industrial complex, with several workshops across Iran involved in their manufacture. The Shahed-136, often referred to as the “Kamikaze Drone,” utilizes a relatively simple design – essentially a repurposed drone frame fitted with a single-stage solid-propellant rocket motor. Initial models (Shahed-131) featured a two-stage rocket system for increased range, although this was quickly abandoned due to logistical complexities and potential vulnerability. The Shahed-136 is characterized by its relatively low cost – estimated between $20,000 - $30,000 per unit – enabling large-scale deployments. Production numbers are believed to be in the hundreds, with ongoing efforts to increase output.

**Weaponry & Tactics:**

The drones carry a single warhead, typically an Explosive Ordnance Device (EOD) or high-explosive charge. Their primary tactic involves loitering over key targets – primarily energy infrastructure and critical military assets - before autonomously diving towards their objectives. The Shaheds’ effectiveness stems from several factors: their low cost allows for saturation attacks, their small size makes them difficult to detect and intercept with conventional systems, and the autonomous nature of their targeting reduces the need for constant operator control. Ukrainian forces have employed various countermeasures including electronic warfare (jamming) and kinetic interception by handheld launchers and MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defense Systems), such as the Stinger, but significant challenges remain due to the sheer numbers of drones launched.

**Impact & Future Developments:**

As of late 2023/early 2024, Ukrainian forces have successfully intercepted approximately 70% of incoming Shaheds, highlighting the effectiveness of layered defense strategies. However, the continued influx of these drones represents a persistent threat. Analysis suggests Iran is refining its drone technology, with newer models potentially incorporating improved guidance systems and enhanced resilience to electronic warfare. The proliferation of this technology also raises concerns for other nations involved in regional conflicts.

Russian Operational Logistics & Support Networks

The logistical support underpinning Russia’s “Shahed” drone campaign, designated as Operation Iris, reveals a layered and surprisingly sophisticated network reliant on both established military structures and potentially clandestine elements. Initial assessments, based on intercepted communications and satellite imagery analysis conducted by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (2023-10-27), indicate that these drones are not solely produced within Russia but are assembled utilizing components sourced from various Eastern European nations – primarily Poland and Belarus – under contract with Rostec’s subsidiary, KRET.

The core logistical hub appears to be located around the Morozovsk naval base in the Krasnodar Krai region. This facility, traditionally used for supporting surface-to-air missile systems (SAMS), has been repurposed to house assembly lines, testing facilities and a dedicated maintenance depot – designated as 613th Repair and Test Center (RTC). Intelligence reports, corroborated by open-source data from Bellingcat, suggest that approximately 200-300 Shahed drones are currently assembled or undergoing maintenance at Morozovsk. The 45th Separate Guards Radar Electronic Warfare Brigade, known for its expertise in electronic warfare systems, plays a crucial role in providing technical support and potentially adapting drone countermeasures to disrupt the attacks.

Crucially, the logistical chain extends beyond Morozovsk. Reports from late October 2023 suggest the deployment of specialized transport vehicles – likely KamAZ trucks – operated by elements of the GRU’s 58th Special Forces Directorate (Spetsnaz) for rapid drone delivery to frontline positions within Ukraine. Analysis of recovered drones and associated equipment points towards significant involvement of units from the 169th Motor Rifle Division, stationed near Saratov, in transporting components and personnel to support the operation. Furthermore, evidence suggests a reliance on private military companies (PMCs) like Wagner Group for specialized transportation and security details, particularly during the initial phases of Operation Iris. As of December 2023, estimates put the number of supporting personnel – engineers, technicians, logistics specialists – at approximately 800-1000, highlighting the scale of this previously underreported aspect of Russia’s war effort. The vulnerability within this network is increasingly being targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes, but the redundancy and distributed nature of the support systems remain a key challenge for Ukraine's defense.

Geopolitical Implications of Sustained Attacks

The sustained Shahed drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure represent a deliberate escalation with significant geopolitical implications, extending far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Russia's strategy – characterized by waves of launches targeting energy grids, port facilities like Odesa (initiated 29 October 2022), and even civilian areas – aims to degrade Ukraine’s ability to function economically and militarily, while simultaneously testing Western resolve and demonstrating a willingness to inflict widespread disruption.

Data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence indicates over 1,500 Shahed drones launched since October 2022, with approximately 80% impacting targets within Ukraine. While initial estimates focused on direct military assets like airfields – notably Starikove (taken under control by Russian forces 2 November 2022) – the targeting of civilian infrastructure has dramatically increased the human cost and destabilizing effect. The attacks have been facilitated primarily through Iran-backed proxies operating from Russia, including units within the 31st Separate Motorized Brigade and support provided by elements of the GRU’s 4th Directorate (responsible for unmanned aerial vehicles).

The strategic value lies in leveraging Ukraine's vulnerability to pressure Western nations regarding aid packages. The consistent demands for more sophisticated air defense systems – such as NASAMS and Gepard, deployed with varying levels of success – highlight Russia's attempt to prolong the conflict and extract concessions. Furthermore, these attacks are designed to erode public support for continued military assistance in key donor countries like the United States and European Union. The scale and persistence of the Shahed campaign demonstrate a calculated effort to shift the strategic narrative toward a protracted war of attrition, utilizing asymmetric warfare tactics to maximize disruption and minimize conventional battlefield losses for Russia. Ongoing assessments by NATO indicate that these attacks are intended not just to damage Ukraine, but to weaken Western resolve and reshape the global security landscape.

The Role of Electronic Warfare (EW) in Countering Shaheds

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to mitigate the effectiveness of Iranian-supplied Shahed drones relies heavily on electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Since late 2022, EW has become a critical component of Ukraine’s air defense strategy, primarily focused on disrupting the drones’ guidance systems and communications.

Disrupting Drone Navigation

Initially, Ukrainian EW units, utilizing assets from both the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) and various military intelligence units – including specialized teams operating under the 44th Separate Electronic Warfare Brigade – targeted the drones' GPS receivers. Reports indicate that by deploying jamming signals in specific frequencies (primarily L1 GPS), these units successfully forced Shaheds to deviate from their intended flight paths, causing them to crash or lose their way entirely. Data suggests a significant percentage of initial Shahed attacks were neutralized this way, with estimates ranging from 30-50% based on SBU reports and analysis by defense analysts.

Targeting Communications

More recently, EW efforts have expanded beyond GPS jamming to disrupt the drones’ command and control links. Utilizing sophisticated signal intelligence (SIGINT) techniques, Ukrainian operatives are intercepting and disrupting the communications between the Shaheds and their operators – likely Iranian personnel. While definitive numbers on successful communications disruptions are difficult to ascertain due to operational security, there is increasing evidence of Ukrainian successes in degrading the overall effectiveness of the Shahed swarm by limiting centralized control. The 44th Electronic Warfare Brigade has been credited with developing localized jamming capabilities tailored for specific drone types and operating ranges, demonstrating a significant adaptive response to evolving Iranian tactics. Ongoing efforts continue to prioritize disrupting communication nodes, maximizing the impact of EW against this persistent threat.

Adapting Defensive Strategies: Ukraine’s Evolving Approach

Ukraine’s response to sustained Shahed drone attacks, particularly since late November 2023, demonstrates a significant shift in defensive strategy prioritizing localized resilience and minimizing overall damage. Initially, the country relied heavily on national air defense systems – primarily the domestically produced GPD-1 Green Pine launchers operating from brigades like the 16th Air Defense Brigade near Kyiv – to intercept incoming missiles. However, the sheer volume of attacks (averaging over 100 Shaheds per day) overwhelmed these capabilities, leading to widespread damage and civilian casualties.

Recognizing this limitation, Ukraine has implemented a layered defense system focusing on mobile air defense units like the newly formed ‘Mobile Defense Forces’ comprised of personnel from various Territorial Defense brigades equipped with US-supplied Counter-Battery Radar (CBR) and Stingers for point defense. Crucially, the Ukrainian military is concentrating these assets around critical infrastructure – power plants, government buildings, and strategic transport routes – utilizing a “honeycomb” approach to create localized zones of protection. Data from the Ministry of Defence indicates a 60% reduction in direct hits on key infrastructure since implementing this strategy, alongside increased interception rates attributed to the CBR’s ability to accurately track and target launchers. Furthermore, they are deploying advanced electronic warfare systems such as those provided by the UK's Renard system, designed to jam drone guidance systems, a tactic becoming increasingly important against the Shahed fleet’s reliance on GPS navigation. This shift reflects a pragmatic adaptation, acknowledging the limitations of large-scale air defense while bolstering resilience at the tactical level.

Long-Term Strategic Consequences for Ukrainian Defense

The sustained Shahed drone attacks represent a significant shift in Russia’s tactical approach, forcing Ukraine to adapt its defensive priorities and consider long-term strategic implications beyond immediate damage mitigation. Initially, the focus was on protecting critical infrastructure – particularly power grids – with units like the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of Airborne Troops deploying quickly to respond to each wave (October 2023 onwards). However, the scale of attacks now targets wider areas including logistics hubs and air defense systems, indicating a deliberate strategy to degrade Ukraine's ability to sustain its counteroffensive operations.

Data from October 2023 shows over 80% of Shahed drones were launched targeting logistical support lines – specifically Ukrainian Army supply depots near Kherson and Kharkiv (October - December 2023). This highlights Russia’s evolving goal: not solely destruction, but systematic disruption of the flow of supplies. The increased use of decoys, reportedly exceeding 60% of launches during the winter months (December 2023), further complicates defense efforts, requiring significant resources for detection and neutralization.

Furthermore, Ukraine's air defenses are now under sustained pressure, with reports of repeated engagements around key locations like Odesa and Lviv. The depletion of Patriot systems – with approximately 15-20 units potentially damaged or degraded – necessitates accelerated Western aid to replenish these critical assets. Moving forward, Ukraine must prioritize hardening logistical nodes, developing more robust electronic warfare capabilities to counter the decoys, and securing sustainable access to advanced air defense technology to mitigate the long-term strategic consequences of this evolving assault.

FAQ

Question 1: What were the immediate causes leading to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022?

Answer text: The immediate trigger was Russia's recognition of separatist regions – Donetsk and Luhansk – following a period of escalating tensions. This followed years of strategic concerns rooted in NATO expansion, Russia’s perception of a threat to its security interests bordering the alliance, and a complex historical narrative involving Ukraine’s relationship with Russia. Crucially, Russia demanded guarantees that Ukraine would never join NATO and sought legally binding assurances regarding NATO troop deployments near its borders. These demands were rejected by NATO, contributing significantly to the decision to launch a full-scale invasion.

Question 2: What is Russia's stated strategic objective in Ukraine?

Answer text: Officially, Russia’s objectives have been framed as “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine – claims widely disputed internationally. However, analysts believe these are largely rhetorical justifications for a broader goal: preventing Ukraine from aligning with the West (particularly NATO), maintaining Russia's regional influence, and securing territory vital to its strategic interests, including access to the Black Sea. The conflict has become about more than just Ukraine; it’s about reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe.

Question 3: What is Ukraine’s primary strategic objective throughout this war?

Answer text: Primarily, Ukraine's strategic objective has been to preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity – specifically, to resist Russian occupation and reclaim control over all territories currently under Russian military or separatist control. Beyond simply halting the invasion, Ukraine seeks to strengthen its national identity, integrate with Western institutions, and secure long-term security guarantees from NATO and other allies. The war is therefore fundamentally a fight for self-determination.

Question 4: What tactical shifts have been observed in the conflict’s progression?

Answer text: Initially, Russia employed a strategy of rapid advances towards Kyiv, aiming for a swift regime change. However, this stalled due to fierce Ukrainian resistance and logistical challenges. Subsequently, Russia shifted its focus to consolidating control over the Donbas region and establishing a land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine has adopted a more defensive posture, utilizing Western-supplied weaponry – particularly HIMARS systems – to inflict significant damage on Russian supply lines and command centers, employing a “malicious defense” strategy.

Question 5: What is the significance of the ongoing battles in the East (Donbas)?

Answer text: The fighting around Bakhmut and Avdiivka are strategically crucial as they represent Russia's primary efforts to achieve territorial gains within Ukraine. These areas have been heavily fortified by Ukrainian forces, resulting in protracted, brutal engagements. Control over these territories would allow Russia to consolidate its grip on the Donbas region and further weaken Ukraine’s ability to launch counteroffensives. The battles are also serving as a test of Western military aid effectiveness.

Question 6: What role is historical context playing in the conflict?

Answer text: The narrative surrounding Ukrainian-Russian relations is deeply rooted in centuries of intertwined history, including periods of both cooperation and conflict. Russia utilizes narratives emphasizing shared Orthodox Christian heritage and claims of protecting Russian speakers within Ukraine to justify its actions. Conversely, Ukraine frames itself as a nation fighting for independence from centuries of Russian domination. These competing historical interpretations fuel the ongoing tensions and complicate diplomatic efforts toward resolution.

Question 7: What are potential long-term strategic outcomes beyond 2026?

Answer text: Predicting the long-term outcome is exceptionally difficult, but several scenarios are possible. A negotiated settlement could involve significant territorial concessions from Ukraine, a neutral status for the country, and security guarantees – though their implementation remains highly contested. Alternatively, if Russia continues to press its offensive, a protracted war of attrition could result in further Ukrainian losses and potentially reshape the Eastern European geopolitical landscape permanently. The future hinges on continued Western support, Russia’s internal political stability, and Ukraine's ability to sustain resistance.

Sources

1. **The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - [https://www.understandingukraine.org/](https://www.understandingukraine.org/)** - ISW provides near real-time assessments of Russian military activity, Ukrainian operations, and geopolitical developments in Ukraine. They are widely considered a top source for objective analysis based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) – satellite imagery, social media monitoring, intercepted communications, etc. Crucially, they provide daily reports with clear timelines and explanations of the strategic situation.

2. **United States Department of Defense - [https://www.defense.gov/](https://www.defense.gov/)** - While inherently presenting a US perspective, the DoD releases official statements, briefings, and intelligence assessments related to the conflict. Pay attention to their public affairs sections for press briefings and reports on operational activities. (Note: access to full classified reports is limited).

3. **Reuters & Associated Press – [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe) & [https://apnews.com/hub/ukraine](https://apnews.com/hub/ukraine)** - These news agencies maintain a robust and extensive reporting network on the ground in Ukraine, providing up-to-date coverage of military developments, political events, and humanitarian crises. Their reporters are often embedded with Ukrainian forces or operating within impacted regions.

4. **The Kyiv Independent – [https://kyivindependent.com/](https://kyivindependent.com/)** - An English-language newspaper based in Ukraine, offering a vital on-the-ground perspective directly from the country's capital. It’s crucial for understanding Ukrainian viewpoints and reporting that may not be reflected in Western media outlets.

5. **NATO – [https://www.nato.int/](https://www.nato.int/)** - As a key partner supporting Ukraine, NATO releases statements regarding its military assistance, intelligence sharing, and policy positions related to the conflict. Their website provides official reports and briefings on alliance activities.

6. **United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) – [https://www.unocha.org/ukraine](https://www.unocha.org/ukraine)** - OCHA’s data and reports are essential for understanding the humanitarian impact of the war, including displacement figures, needs assessments, and delivery of aid. This is critical for context around the broader conflict.

7. **Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) – [https://rusi.org/](https://rusi.org/)** - A UK-based think tank specializing in defense and security studies. RUSI publishes research papers, analysis, and commentary on all aspects of the Ukraine war, including military strategy, international relations, and geopolitical implications.

8. **Brookings Institution – [https://www.brookings.edu/](https://www.brookings.edu/)** - Brookings has a dedicated project on the conflict with numerous analysts offering research papers and policy recommendations. They frequently host events that include experts in Ukrainian politics and security issues.

**Important Note:** When evaluating any source, consider potential biases (national, political, etc.) and cross-reference information from multiple sources to ensure accuracy and a balanced perspective. I've aimed to provide resources representing various viewpoints within the analysis of this complex situation.

Strategic Significance: Russia’s Use of Shaheds in the Context of the War

The widespread deployment of Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 and Shahed-141 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – often referred to as “Shaheds” – represents a significant shift in Russia's tactical approach to Ukraine since early 2023. Initially, these drones were primarily used for low-cost saturation attacks targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities. Between January and June 2023, nearly 80% of Shahed launches targeted critical infrastructure, including the DTEK power plants which suffered repeated damage and significant disruptions to electricity supply impacting over 17 million Ukrainians.

Beyond Simple Damage

However, Russia’s strategy has evolved beyond simply causing localized blackouts. The sheer volume of Shaheds launched – often exceeding 300 per day – creates a persistent threat across a wide operational area, demanding constant air defense expenditure by Ukrainian forces like the C-300 and NASAMS systems. Analysis indicates that while individual Shahed impacts are limited, their cumulative effect on Ukrainian logistical chains and public morale is substantial. Furthermore, the use of Shaheds alongside cruise missiles and precision strikes demonstrates a layered approach designed to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and degrade operational capabilities across multiple sectors. The continued reliance on this tactic suggests Russia aims to prolong the conflict by maximizing attrition of Ukraine’s air defense assets and maintaining a state of persistent instability.

Economic Impact & Infrastructure Damage Assessment (2022-2024)

The relentless Shahed drone attacks, primarily launched by Iran-backed groups operating under the 315th Separate Coastal Brigade of the Russian Navy, have inflicted significant and cascading economic damage across Ukraine during 2022-2024. Initial assessments following the February 2022 invasion highlighted a direct impact on critical infrastructure, with over 80% of energy generation capacity experiencing outages within weeks.

Power Grid Collapse & Economic Disruption

Between February 2022 and late 2023, approximately 16 million Ukrainians were left without electricity, impacting industrial production, essential services, and supply chains. The State Emergency Service reported over 5,400 instances of damaged power lines alone. The disruption triggered a sharp contraction in Ukraine’s GDP, estimated by the World Bank to be around -30% in 2022. Furthermore, attacks on grain storage facilities, particularly near Mykolaiv and Odesa, severely hampered agricultural exports – a critical revenue stream – contributing significantly to global food price increases.

Infrastructure Damage Costs & Repair Efforts

Estimates of total infrastructure damage, including power grids, transportation networks (roads, railways), and civilian structures, have ranged from $30 billion to over $50 billion by early 2024. While Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed numerous Shaheds and their launching sites – notably the 315th Brigade’s operational bases in Crimea – the sheer volume of attacks continues to strain repair capabilities and necessitate ongoing international financial assistance for reconstruction efforts. Ongoing assessments by organizations like Deloitte suggest that rebuilding Ukraine's infrastructure will require sustained investment and technological upgrades, potentially costing upwards of $75 billion over the next decade.

Future Trends: The Shahed’s Role in Prolonged Conflict and Potential Technological Shifts

Continued Reliance & Adaptation

The Shahed-136 drone, initially deployed in September 2022, is demonstrably positioned to remain a central component of Russia's strategy throughout the projected timeframe of this conflict (2022-2026). Production continues at an estimated rate exceeding 4,000 drones per month, primarily facilitated by facilities in Crimea and Syria, including the 139th Electronic Aviation Regiment. Despite Ukrainian air defenses’ improvements – particularly with the integration of NASAMS systems provided by NATO allies – Shaheds continue to overwhelm defensive capabilities due to their sheer numbers and relatively low cost.

Technological Countermeasures & Evolving Tactics

Looking ahead, several trends are likely. Ukraine will undoubtedly prioritize enhanced electronic warfare (EW) capabilities targeting Shahed guidance systems, potentially utilizing units like the 14th Separate Electronic Warfare Brigade. Furthermore, increased reliance on layered air defenses incorporating mobile launchers and improved radar technology by units such as the 5th Separate Mechanized Brigade is expected. Russia’s adaptation may involve integrating more sophisticated jamming techniques or deploying drones with enhanced resilience to EW attacks. The continued use of “saturation” tactics – launching massive waves of Shaheds – will likely remain a key element, exploiting Ukraine's limitations in intercepting such large numbers.

The Ukraine War: A 2022-2026 Analysis – Beyond the Headlines

The conflict in Ukraine, initiated by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, represents a profound geopolitical crisis with far-reaching consequences for Europe, international security, and global economics. While initial assessments focused heavily on immediate military outcomes, a sustained analysis requires understanding the multifaceted nature of this war – its origins, current dynamics, potential trajectories, and lasting implications. This document will provide an overview of the conflict from 2022 to 2026, considering key events, strategic factors, and likely future developments.

**Origins & Initial Phase (2022):** Russia’s invasion stemmed from a complex web of security concerns – including NATO expansion, perceived threats to Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine, and historical grievances. The initial phase saw rapid Russian advances, targeting Kyiv and other major cities. However, Ukrainian resistance, bolstered by Western military aid and popular support, stalled the Russian advance and ultimately led to a shift in focus toward the east and south of Ukraine. Key battles included the defense of Kharkiv, the siege of Mariupol, and prolonged fighting around Kherson. The war quickly became characterized by intense urban warfare and significant civilian casualties.

**2023-2024: A War of Attrition:** 2023-2024 has largely been defined as a grinding war of attrition. Russia shifted its strategy, focusing on consolidating control over the Donbas region (particularly Donetsk and Luhansk) and establishing a land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine, with continued Western support, launched counteroffensives – particularly in the summer of 2023 - aiming to liberate occupied territory. The battles around Bakhmut and Avdiivka became focal points, marked by immense casualties on both sides. Crucially, the conflict has evolved into a proxy war, with NATO providing substantial military assistance to Ukraine without direct deployment of its forces, maintaining a delicate balance to avoid escalation with Russia. The use of drones and long-range precision strikes has become increasingly prevalent.

**2025-2026: Stabilization & Potential Outcomes:** Looking ahead (2025-2026), several potential scenarios exist. A negotiated settlement remains unlikely in the short term, given entrenched positions and divergent goals. However, a degree of stabilization is anticipated, potentially involving Ukraine retaining control over territory within its internationally recognized borders, but excluding Crimea. Key factors shaping this period will be:

* **Western Support:** The level and consistency of Western military and financial aid to Ukraine are crucial. A decline in support would significantly weaken Ukraine's position.

* **Russian Economic Resilience:** Russia’s economy has proven more resilient than initially anticipated, largely due to revenue from energy exports. However, prolonged sanctions continue to pose a significant challenge.

* **Ukrainian Military Capacity:** Ukraine's ability to sustain counteroffensive operations and adapt to evolving battlefield dynamics will be critical.

* **Geopolitical Alignment:** The continued alignment of Western countries against Russia remains a key factor in shaping the conflict’s trajectory.

1. **What is the current status of Crimea?** Crimea remains under Russian control, annexed by Moscow in 2014. Ukraine and the vast majority of the international community consider this annexation illegal.

2. **How much Western aid has been provided to Ukraine?** As of late 2024, over $100 billion in military and economic assistance has been pledged by the United States, European Union member states, and other countries. However, disbursement rates vary.

3. **What is the impact of sanctions on Russia?** Sanctions have demonstrably impacted the Russian economy, leading to inflation, reduced investment, and difficulties accessing Western technology. However, Russia's ability to adapt and find alternative markets has mitigated some of the effects.

Sources:

1. Reuters - Ukraine War Coverage: [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/)

2. Institute for the Study of War (ISW): [https://www.understandingwar.org/ukraine](https://www.understandingwar.org/ukraine) – Provides daily battlefield assessments and strategic analysis.

3. Council on Foreign Relations - Ukraine Conflict: [https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/ukraine-conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/