Izyum Balakliya

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, particularly the operations surrounding Izium and बालाکلیয়া (Balakliya), exemplifies a sophisticated application of “intercontinental tactics,” as termed within Ukrainian military analysis – a strategy involving layered defenses, calculated retreats, and deliberate attrition designed to wear down enemy forces. This approach, observed extensively since May 2023, deviates significantly from the initial, more aggressive offensive posture.

Initially, Russian forces employed a rapid encirclement strategy, exemplified by the siege of Izium. However, Ukrainian forces successfully utilized a tactic of staged withdrawals – what analysts describe as “pulling back to hold,” strategically retreating from key positions while maintaining control over adjacent terrain. This allowed them to lure larger numbers of Russian troops into prepared kill zones and disrupt supply lines. The 47th Separate Crimean Squadron, for instance, played a crucial role in this maneuver around Балаکلیя, creating a defensive perimeter that proved remarkably resilient against repeated assaults.

Statistics show a significant shift in battlefield dynamics. While Russian forces initially possessed a numerical advantage – estimated at over 100,000 troops concentrated in the region – Ukrainian counter-offensives, leveraging this tactic of attrition and utilizing Western-supplied weaponry like HIMARS, have reduced that advantage considerably. The deliberate fragmentation of the Russian offensive force has been key to their success. The ongoing efforts around Балаکلیя demonstrate a shift from outright conquest to controlling strategically vital defensive lines, significantly impacting Russian logistical routes. Current estimates place Ukrainian control over approximately 60% of the Балаکلیয়া region as of late October 2023, demonstrating the effectiveness of this “intercontinental tactic.”

Розвідка та Контррозвідка в Районі Бойових НД

The ongoing conflict in the Donbas region, particularly around Izum and Balakleya, reveals a complex interplay of Russian military tactics focused on protracted engagements and exploiting Ukrainian vulnerabilities. From February 2022 onwards, units like the 6th Separate Guards ‘Special Forces’ Mechanized Brigade and elements of the 47th Combined Arms Centre underwent sustained pressure from forces associated with the Wagner Group and regular Russian Army units – primarily those originating from the 1st Guards Siberian Motor Rifle Division.

Initial assessments indicated a deliberate strategy to degrade Ukrainian defensive capabilities through concentrated assaults, utilizing tactics mirroring “intercontinental” warfare as discussed in previous sections. This manifested in waves of attacks targeting key infrastructure points like ammunition depots (such as the strike on the depot near Vovcherka) and attempting to encircle larger Ukrainian formations. Statistical analysis shows a consistent pattern: Russian forces consistently attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines using combined arms assaults – infantry supported by artillery, including multiple rocket launchers (MRLs) like BM-21 Grad systems - with limited success due to Ukrainian resistance and counter-attacks.

Crucially, Russian intelligence efforts focused on identifying and disrupting Ukrainian command and control nodes. While evidence of widespread successful counter-intelligence operations remains contested, there is strong evidence suggesting the targeted elimination of key Ukrainian officers and the disruption of communication networks by groups affiliated with GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate) operatives, though this was often countered by Ukrainian forces' rapid redeployment strategies. The prolonged siege of Izum specifically highlighted the effectiveness of Ukrainian defensive positions bolstered by Western-supplied weaponry like HIMARS systems in disrupting Russian supply lines and logistics. By June 2023, after intense fighting, Ukrainian forces had successfully liberated Izum, marking a pivotal moment in the conflict’s trajectory. Continued monitoring of operational patterns remains essential for understanding evolving Russian strategies within this volatile sector.

Геополітичні Наслідки Ескалації

The escalation surrounding Izum and Balakliya has triggered significant geopolitical ramifications, fundamentally altering the strategic landscape of Eastern Europe and prompting a reassessment of international alliances. Following the initial Russian offensive in February 2022, Ukrainian forces, bolstered by Western military aid – including Javelin anti-tank systems supplied by the US and Leopard 2 tanks from NATO countries – successfully halted the northward advance near Izum, holding a crucial line of defense against a potential encirclement of Kharkiv.

However, the intensified fighting around Balakliya in late June and July 2023 revealed Russia’s renewed offensive capabilities and highlighted vulnerabilities within Ukraine's defensive structures. Russian forces, utilizing elements of the 6th Guards Army and reportedly supported by Wagner Group mercenaries, achieved localized gains, pushing Ukrainian troops back from key settlements. This resurgence prompted a rapid influx of Western military advisors and equipment, including advanced reconnaissance drones and precision-guided munitions, to reinforce Ukrainian defenses.

The battle for Balakliya exposed a critical weakness: Ukraine’s reliance on rapid counterattacks supported by substantial air cover – largely absent due to attrition and operational constraints – left its forces vulnerable to concentrated Russian assaults. Estimates suggest that over 10,000 square kilometers of territory were contested during the intensified fighting, with significant casualties reported on both sides. Furthermore, the conflict underscored the increasing importance of logistical support; Ukraine's ability to sustain offensive operations hinged heavily on the continued flow of Western military assistance. The situation highlights a potential shift in the war’s dynamics and demands immediate attention to bolstering Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and securing sustainable long-term commitments from international partners.

Аналіз Впливу Зброї Великої Матриці на Операції

The escalating use of HIMARS and other long-range artillery systems by Ukrainian forces, particularly the 1st Mountain Brigade near Izum and operations conducted by units linked to the 47th Separate Assault Brigade, is having a demonstrably destabilizing effect on Russian logistical networks. Since February 2023, reports indicate that approximately 60% of pre-war Russian ammunition stockpiles located within range of Ukrainian artillery have been neutralized. This includes significant quantities of 9M17 Mulan systems (Russian equivalent to the ATACMS) and precision-guided munitions delivered via HIMARS platforms.

Specifically, strikes targeting ammunition depots near Kursk (February 23rd), Belgorod (March 26th), and warehouses in the Krasnodar Krai region have significantly disrupted Russian supply lines. Intelligence estimates suggest that the initial wave of attacks, coordinated by Ukrainian military intelligence, successfully degraded Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations in the Donbas. While Russia has attempted to relocate stockpiles, the speed and precision of Ukrainian strikes have consistently outpaced their efforts, with a 37% reduction in ammunition available to frontline units within the last six months according to open-source intelligence analysis. The deliberate targeting of transport hubs – including rail lines supporting the supply of armored vehicles – has further exacerbated this issue. Russian forces are increasingly reliant on less efficient and more vulnerable road transport, making them prime targets for Ukrainian counterattacks. This shift in operational dynamics represents a critical strategic advantage for Ukraine, significantly impacting Russia’s ability to maintain momentum and inflicting significant losses on their materiel.

Логістика та Обідження Ремонтних Робіт

The logistical challenges surrounding the repair and maintenance of military equipment within the contested areas of Izum and Balakliya, particularly during the 2022-2026 Ukraine War, represent a critical operational bottleneck for both Ukrainian and Russian forces. Initial assessments following the 24 February 2022 invasion revealed widespread damage to supply chains and infrastructure, severely impacting the ability to maintain armored vehicles, artillery systems, and communications equipment.

Ukrainian efforts have focused on establishing mobile repair teams, often utilizing National Guard units like the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade and incorporating civilian mechanics, to address immediate battlefield needs. Data from late 2022 indicated that approximately 60% of Ukrainian armored vehicle crews were operating with degraded or damaged equipment due to a shortage of replacement parts and specialized tools. The deliberate targeting of Ukrainian logistics hubs by Russian forces – including incidents near Kharkiv in March 2022 – further exacerbated this problem, disrupting the flow of supplies.

Russian logistical operations have relied heavily on maintaining existing infrastructure and establishing repair depots within occupied territories. However, reports from late 2023 highlighted significant bottlenecks due to damaged roads, limited access for heavy equipment, and continued Ukrainian strikes targeting these facilities. Estimates suggest that Russia’s ability to fully replace lost or damaged equipment has been consistently hampered by a combination of factors including supply chain vulnerabilities stemming from sanctions and the ongoing intensity of combat operations. As of late 2024, efforts are focused on establishing more decentralized repair networks, but maintaining operational readiness remains a significant challenge, with analysts estimating that Russia's capacity to fully replace lost equipment is still approximately 40% of pre-war levels due to persistent shortages and damage to key support infrastructure.

Прогнози та Моделювання майбутніх сценаріїв бою

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine presents a complex operational environment, demanding sophisticated modeling and scenario planning. Current projections, based on available intelligence from late October 2023, suggest a protracted war with continued shifts in strategic priorities for both sides. Russian forces, primarily utilizing elements of the Central Group Army (ЦВО) and Western Group Army (ЗВО), continue to focus on consolidating gains in the Donbas region – specifically around Avdiivka, where intensified assaults by Ukrainian brigades like the 47th Mountain Assault Brigade have met with limited success despite heavy casualties.

Data from the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine indicates that Russian forces are sustaining significant losses, estimated at over 10,000 personnel in the last six weeks alone, largely due to Ukrainian counter-battery fire and persistent attacks by mechanized brigades like the 54th Brigade. Simultaneously, Ukraine is actively employing U.S.-supplied HIMARS systems to disrupt Russian logistics lines, particularly targeting fuel depots and command nodes within the ZVO. The ongoing drone strikes, primarily utilizing Iranian-made Shahed variants, represent a significant challenge to Ukrainian air defenses, with estimates placing losses at over 30% of available interceptor missiles in recent weeks.

Looking ahead to 2024-2026, modeling suggests that Russia will likely maintain a defensive posture, relying on entrenched positions and asymmetric warfare tactics. However, future escalation could be triggered by several factors: continued Ukrainian advances supported by sustained Western military aid, or potentially, Russian attempts to directly attack NATO territory via expanded operations in Eastern Ukraine. Predictive analysis points toward a gradual shift towards attrition warfare, with both sides experiencing continued heavy losses, contingent on the volume of external support received by each belligerent. Further complicating matters is the evolving threat posed by potential cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure across both nations.

FAQ

Question 1: What exactly triggered the full-scale invasion in February 2022?

Answer text: The immediate trigger was Russia’s claim of a ‘special military operation’ aimed at demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine, following months of escalating tensions. However, analysts point to a complex web of factors including NATO expansion, Russian security concerns regarding Ukraine's alignment with the West, and long-standing geopolitical disputes over control within Ukraine’s borders – particularly in Crimea and Donbas. The invasion itself represents a significant escalation from the 2014 annexation of Crimea and ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Question 2: What is Russia’s stated strategic goal in Ukraine?

Answer text: Officially, Russia states its goals are to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine, protect Russian-speaking populations, and prevent NATO expansion eastward. However, many analysts believe the true strategic goal is to reestablish a sphere of influence within what used to be the Soviet Union and to challenge Western dominance globally. This involves destabilizing Ukrainian governance and potentially securing control over key territories for resource access or strategic positioning.

Question 3: What are Ukraine's primary military objectives?

Answer text: Initially, Ukraine’s objective was to defend its sovereign territory and prevent a Russian takeover. As of late 2023/early 2024, this has evolved into a counteroffensive aimed at liberating occupied territories – particularly in the south and east – and degrading Russia's military capabilities. Ukraine is relying heavily on Western military aid to achieve these goals and maintain momentum against a numerically superior adversary.

Question 4: What role are NATO and other international actors playing?

Answer text: NATO has provided significant military assistance to Ukraine, including training, equipment, and intelligence support, but has avoided direct military intervention to prevent escalation with Russia. The US and EU have imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, aiming to cripple its economy and limit its ability to wage war. Other international actors, like the UN, are primarily focused on humanitarian efforts, mediating negotiations (with limited success), and condemning Russian aggression.

Question 5: What is the historical context of the conflict?

Answer text: The roots of the current conflict lie in Ukraine’s complex history, shaped by centuries of empires – including the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Russia, and Austria-Hungary – vying for control. Soviet influence was particularly strong after World War II, leading to a period of Russian dominance over Ukrainian territory. Following the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Ukraine declared independence, but tensions with Russia persisted due to disagreements regarding gas pipelines, NATO expansion, and Crimea’s status.

Question 6: What are the potential long-term strategic implications of this war?

Answer text: The conflict has fundamentally altered European security architecture. A prolonged stalemate could lead to a frozen conflict, with ongoing low-intensity warfare and significant instability in Eastern Europe. The war is also reshaping global alliances, accelerating shifts in economic power (particularly between Russia and the West), and raising concerns about nuclear proliferation. Furthermore, the conflict's impact on Ukraine’s economy and its future trajectory remains uncertain.

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Sources

1. **Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – [https://www.understandingukraine.org/](https://www.understandingukraine.org/)** - The ISW is a leading independent organization that provides open-source intelligence on the conflict in Ukraine. They offer daily reports, maps, and analysis covering troop movements, artillery fire, and strategic developments. *Relevance: Provides real-time battlefield assessments and geopolitical context.*

2. **United States Department of Defense – [https://www.defense.gov/](https://www.defense.gov/)** - Specifically look for updates and statements from the US DoD's Ukraine Fact Sheet and related press releases. *Relevance: Offers U.S. military assessments, strategic goals, and publicly available information about the conflict.*

3. **Reuters & Associated Press (via reputable news sources like BBC, CNN, etc.) – [https://www.reuters.com/](https://www.reuters.com/) & [https://apnews.com/](https://apnews.com/)** - Reputable news organizations have dedicated teams covering the war and provide consistent reporting on key developments, including troop movements, civilian casualties, and diplomatic efforts. *Relevance: Provides a broad overview of events as reported by major international media.*

4. **NATO – [https://www.nato.int/](https://www.nato.int/)** - The NATO website provides statements, press releases, and reports concerning the alliance’s support for Ukraine and its strategic response to Russian aggression. *Relevance: Shows the geopolitical implications of the conflict as viewed by a major international security organization.*

5. **United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) – [https://www.unocha.org/](https://www.unocha.org/)** - OCHA provides data and reports on humanitarian needs within Ukraine, including displacement figures, access to aid, and protection concerns. *Relevance: Crucial for understanding the human cost of the conflict and the challenges of delivering assistance.*

6. **Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) – [https://www.rusi.org/](https://www.rusi.org/)** - RUSI is a UK-based defense and security think tank that publishes research on various aspects of the Ukraine war, including military strategy, intelligence analysis, and geopolitical implications. *Relevance: Offers in-depth expert analysis and strategic assessments from a respected source.*

7. **Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – [https://carnegieendowment.org/](https://carnegieendowment.org/)** - The Carnegie Endowment has published numerous reports and analyses on the Ukraine war, focusing on geopolitical trends, Russian foreign policy, and potential scenarios for the future. *Relevance: Provides a broader perspective on the conflict's impact on international relations.*

**Note:** It’s important to critically evaluate all sources and cross-reference information from multiple outlets to ensure accuracy and avoid bias. The situation in Ukraine is constantly evolving, so regularly updating your source list is essential for maintaining an informed analysis.

The Strategic Significance of Ізюм-Балаклія During the Early Phase of the Conflict (2022)

Ізюм (pronounced Izum’) and Балаклія (Balakliya), collectively forming a vital operational hub, held immense strategic significance for Russia’s initial offensive in Ukraine during 2022. Captured by Russian forces on September 30th, 2022, after intense fighting involving elements of the 69th Combined Arms Army and the 41st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the cities represented a crucial stepping stone towards severing Ukrainian supply lines and advancing deeper into Kharkiv Oblast.

A Logistical Corridor and Operational Base

Prior to the Russian advance, Ізюм controlled key transportation routes connecting Kharkiv with the Sea of Azov, facilitating the movement of supplies and reinforcements for Ukrainian forces defending the region. Its capture effectively cut off this vital corridor, placing significant pressure on Ukrainian defensive positions. The cities quickly became a primary logistical base for advancing Russian units, notably the 31st Mechanized Brigade, allowing them to rapidly deploy across the area.

Strategic Location & Subsequent Importance

Approximately 20,000 internally displaced persons were initially trapped in Ізюм under Russian occupation, complicating Ukrainian efforts and serving as a bargaining chip during subsequent negotiations. The strategic importance of Ізюм-Балаклія escalated throughout October and November 2022 as Russian forces aimed to encircle Kharkiv, ultimately failing to achieve this objective but solidifying the region’s initial value in Russia's broader war aims.

Tactical Assessment: Russian Assault Tactics and Ukrainian Defenses at Ізюм-Балаклія

The battles for Ізюм (now Heorhiyivka) and Балаклія, encompassing the broader Sivershchyna axis, represented a pivotal phase of Russia’s 2022 offensive aimed at severing Ukraine's land bridge to the Black Sea. Initial Russian tactics focused on concentrated assaults utilizing elements of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division (69 MRD) and significant support from the 83rd Separate Motorized Brigade, aiming for rapid encirclement of key logistical hubs. These attacks relied heavily on massed artillery barrages followed by infantry advances, often employing combined arms tactics with armored vehicles like T-72s.

Ukrainian Defensive Strategy and Key Points

Ukrainian forces, primarily utilizing units of the 116th Brigade and bolstered by elements from the Territorial Defense Forces, established a layered defense system centered around pre-prepared defensive lines and fortifications near Vovchansk and Zolochiv. Despite being significantly outnumbered, Ukrainian troops employed effective delaying tactics and utilized local terrain to their advantage, creating bottlenecks for the Russian advance. By September 2022, Ukrainian forces had successfully halted the initial breakthrough, inflicting significant casualties on attacking units – estimates suggest losses of over 3,000 personnel in the region alone. The protracted stalemate highlighted a fundamental shift in Russian operational tempo and underscored Ukraine's ability to leverage defensive capabilities within a prepared zone.

The Role of Supply Lines & Logistical Bottlenecks in Determining the Outcome

The success or failure of any prolonged conflict hinges significantly on a nation’s ability to sustain its forces – and this was brutally illustrated in the battles surrounding Ізюм-Балаклія. Russia's initial advance in February 2022, aiming for Izyum, rapidly stalled due to Ukrainian resistance and, crucially, severe logistical vulnerabilities within the Russian supply chain.

Dependence on Volgograd Route

Russian forces heavily relied on a single land corridor through Crimea, funneling supplies via the Volga River to Volgograd before onward movement towards Izyum. This route proved exceptionally vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly those spearheaded by the 47th Motorized Rifle Brigade and bolstered by elements of the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. The persistent shelling of bridges like the Kakhovka Bridge (destroyed June 1 August 2023) and road networks dramatically slowed Russian resupply rates. Estimates suggest that as of late 2023, Russia was consistently falling short of its ammunition needs by approximately 30-40%, directly impacting their offensive capabilities.

Ukrainian Countermeasures & Bottlenecks

Ukrainian forces exploited these vulnerabilities with precision strikes targeting supply depots and transportation nodes. The encirclement of Балаклія in September 2022 exemplified this strategy, cutting off Russian reinforcements and further exacerbating the logistical crisis. While Ukraine faced challenges maintaining its own extensive supply lines, the disruption of Russia’s was arguably more decisive in limiting their operational tempo and ultimately contributing to the eventual withdrawal from the region.

Long-Term Implications for Eastern Ukraine’s Security Landscape (2023-2026)

The protracted conflict in Eastern Ukraine, particularly around Izum and Balakliya, will continue to reshape the region's security landscape through 2026, characterized by a persistent low-intensity conflict punctuated by localized offensives. The immediate post-liberation of Izyum in November 2022 demonstrated Russia’s capacity for prolonged attrition warfare, and this model is likely to remain central to their strategy.

Stabilized Frontlines & Persistent Threat

By late 2023, Ukrainian forces had largely stabilized the line of contact, with units like the 93rd Brigade and elements of the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade maintaining defensive positions along the Svatove-Barvinov corridor. However, Russia continues to employ Wagner Group mercenaries – particularly PM KRIM – to conduct probing attacks and attempts to disrupt Ukrainian supply routes. Intelligence estimates suggest Wagner maintains approximately 600-800 combatants in this sector as of early 2024.

Shifting Priorities & Hybrid Warfare

Looking ahead, the security landscape will likely evolve towards a strategy of hybrid warfare: utilizing disinformation campaigns targeting local populations, supporting separatist proxies through covert funding and training, and conducting limited raids to destabilize Ukrainian control. The Oblast Governor’s reports detail ongoing shelling from Russian positions near Kreminna and Kupiansk, demonstrating Russia's ability to inflict casualties and disrupt civilian life even in areas considered “liberated.” Ultimately, a full Ukrainian offensive to retake the entire Kharkiv region remains unlikely due to the high cost of such an operation.

The Ukraine War: A Shifting Landscape (2022-2026) – An Analysis

The conflict in Ukraine, initiated by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, continues to be a defining global event with far-reaching geopolitical consequences. While the initial objectives of Russia – namely regime change and securing a land bridge to Crimea – haven't been fully achieved, the war has become a protracted conflict characterized by grinding attrition, significant Western support for Ukraine, and evolving strategic dynamics.

As of late 2024, the frontline is largely static along a line roughly from Kharkiv in the northeast to Kherson in the southwest. Russia maintains control over significant portions of eastern and southern Ukraine, including parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Ukrainian forces have successfully launched counteroffensives, notably in 2023-2024, liberating territory around Kharkiv and pushing Russian forces back from key areas near the Dnipro River. However, gains have been incremental and costly.

The war is now largely defined by artillery duels and trench warfare, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia continues to launch missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, aiming to degrade Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense. Ukraine relies heavily on Western military aid – primarily from the United States and NATO countries – for air defenses, ammunition, and training.

**Strategic Implications & Future Trends (2026 Projected):**

Looking ahead to 2026, several key trends are likely:

* **Continued Attrition:** Without a major shift in momentum or a significant escalation, the conflict will likely remain characterized by attrition – a war of exhaustion where neither side can achieve a decisive breakthrough.

* **Western Support Fatigue:** The level of Western support for Ukraine is expected to gradually decline as political priorities shift in donor countries. Continued aid will be contingent on factors like upcoming elections and evolving geopolitical alignments.

* **Hybrid Warfare Intensification:** Russia is likely to increasingly employ hybrid warfare tactics - cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and proxy operations – to destabilize Ukraine and undermine Western influence.

* **Potential for a Negotiated Settlement (Unlikely but Possible):** While unlikely in the short term, a negotiated settlement could emerge if conditions change significantly, such as a major shift in battlefield momentum or changes in leadership in either country. However, deep-seated mistrust makes any agreement exceedingly difficult to achieve.

**Challenges & Risks:**

* **Escalation Risk:** The potential for escalation remains a significant concern, particularly if Russia feels its strategic objectives are threatened or if Western involvement increases significantly.

* **Humanitarian Crisis:** The war continues to cause immense human suffering and displacement, with millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes.

* **Economic Impact:** The conflict has had a devastating impact on the Ukrainian economy and has contributed to global inflation and supply chain disruptions.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. **What is the current status of peace talks?** Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have been stalled for months, with significant disagreements over territorial claims and security guarantees. While backchannel diplomacy continues, a formal peace agreement remains elusive.

2. **How much aid is Ukraine receiving from Western countries?** As of late 2024, the United States has provided approximately $100 billion in assistance to Ukraine, while other NATO allies have contributed billions more. However, this funding is subject to fluctuations based on political considerations and budgetary constraints.

3. **What are Russia's long-term goals in Ukraine?** Officially, Russia states its goal is to "demilitarize" and “denazify” Ukraine. Realistically, analysts believe Russia seeks to maintain control over strategically important territories, prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and establish a sphere of influence within the country.

Sources

1. Reuters: [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-2024-05-17/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-2024-05-17/) (Provides ongoing news coverage and analysis)

2. Institute for the Study of War: [https://www.understandingwar.org/](https://www.understandingwar.org/) (Offers detailed battlefield assessments, maps, and strategic analysis).

3. Council on Foreign Relations: [https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker