The 155mm Artillery Shell Supply Chain
The 155mm shell is the defining munition of the Ukraine war, and the single clearest test of Western industrial endurance. Yet the shell that lands on a target is the endpoint of a long, fragile pipeline: cotton or wood pulp becomes nitrocellulose, which becomes propellant; nitric acid and toluene become TNT and RDX; steel is forged into a body and a fuze is screwed on top. Each step runs through different factories, and the whole chain produces only as fast as its slowest link — almost always the energetic chemicals.
The Four-Part Pipeline
A complete 155mm round is an assembly of four largely independent products. There is the forged and machined steel projectile body; the explosive fill packed inside it, usually TNT or a TNT/RDX composition; the fuze that screws into the nose and triggers detonation; and a separate propelling charge of nitrocellulose-based powder, in modular bags, that launches the shell out of the gun.
These four come from four different supply chains. Body forging belongs to heavy metals industry; explosives and propellant come from specialised, hazardous energetic-chemical plants; fuzes draw on precision engineering and electronics. A finished round exists only when all four converge in a load-assemble-pack (LAP) facility. That structure is the key to understanding the war's ammunition crisis: scaling one element does nothing if another lags.
It also explains why governments funded the whole chain rather than just ordering more shells. A prime contractor can promise a million rounds, but the promise is only as good as the powder mill and the explosives plant feeding it.
Powder: The First Step
The propelling charge begins with nitrocellulose — cellulose from cotton linters or wood pulp treated with concentrated nitric and sulphuric acid. The resulting "guncotton" is processed into propellant grains and modular charge bags. This chemistry is dangerous, tightly regulated and concentrated in very few plants, which made nitrocellulose one of the first chokepoints to bite after 2022.
Europe leaned heavily on a small set of producers. France's Eurenco restarted nitrocellulose output at its Bergerac site, which had been shut after a 2022 accident, and committed roughly €500 million to lift powder production roughly tenfold and double modular-charge capacity. Rheinmetall, anxious about supply, bought the German nitrocellulose maker Hagedorn-NC and moved to expand its Nitrochemie joint venture with RUAG in Switzerland and Germany.
Because powder is the first link and the hardest to scale, it repeatedly set the limit on how many complete rounds the West could ship — a point explored in detail on the dedicated propellant shortage page.
Explosive Fill
The bursting charge inside the body is most often TNT, sometimes blended with RDX in compositions such as Composition B for greater power. RDX and the related HMX are produced in a tiny number of facilities; in the United States, the dominant source is BAE Systems' Holston Army Ammunition Plant in Tennessee, historically the exclusive domestic producer of RDX/HMX formulations.
TNT itself became a notorious gap: for years North America had no domestic TNT production at all and relied on imports. New capacity is being built — Repkon USA won a US Army contract to establish a TNT plant in Graham, Kentucky, and General Dynamics committed its own capital toward shell and ordnance work in Texas — but energetic-chemical plants take years to design, permit and certify. The detail is covered on the explosives makers page.
The volumes involved are large. Reporting on the US ramp toward roughly 100,000 complete rounds a month cited explosive requirements in the tens of thousands of tons, much of which had previously been imported — another reason the explosives tier became a strategic priority.
Body and Fuze
The steel body is the most scalable part of the chain. Forging and machining shell bodies uses skills and presses that exist across the wider metals industry, so capacity here grew comparatively quickly. The US Army and General Dynamics opened new metal-parts and load-assemble-pack lines, including a large facility in Mesquite, Texas, to push throughput up.
Fuzes sit between metal and electronics. Basic point-detonating fuzes are straightforward, but precision and proximity fuzes draw on the same semiconductor and electronics supply chains that constrain guided weapons. As armies shifted toward precision-guided artillery, the fuze tier began to inherit some of the chip-supply pressures seen elsewhere in defense.
Even so, bodies and fuzes were rarely the binding constraint. The recurring story of 2022 to 2026 was that empty bodies and fuzes were available faster than the powder and explosives needed to fill and fire them.
The EU and US Ramp
Both sides of the Atlantic set ambitious targets. The EU's Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), enacted in 2023, allocated about €500 million and aimed to lift annual European 155mm output toward roughly two million shells. The European Commission said capacity reached about one million rounds a year in early 2025, with primes such as Rheinmetall adding lines toward 1.1 to 1.5 million by 2027.
| Measure | Figure | As of |
|---|---|---|
| EU ASAP headline target | ~2 million shells/yr | 2023 program, end-2025 aim |
| EU capacity reached | ~1 million shells/yr | early 2025 |
| Rheinmetall target | up to ~1.1 million shells/yr | by 2027 |
| US pre-war output | ~14,500 shells/month | before 2022 |
| US output (current) | ~40,000 shells/month | 2025 |
| US Army goal | ~100,000 shells/month | now ~mid-2026 (was Oct 2025) |
⚠ Figures are approximate and from the European Commission (EC ASAP), the US Army (army.mil) and reporting by Defense One and National Defense Magazine. Targets have slipped and change quarter to quarter.
Where the Chain Binds
By 2026 the pattern was clear. Metal-parts forging and final assembly scaled fastest; the binding constraints sat in propellant powder and military explosives. The US Army's 100,000-a-month goal slipped from an October 2025 target toward mid-2026, and the EU's two-million ambition was approached but not hit, precisely because the chemical tiers could not match the speed of the metal tiers.
This is the central lesson of the 155mm supply chain: the visible shell is the easy part. The hard part is the invisible chemistry — guncotton, propellant grains, TNT and RDX — produced in a handful of plants that take years to build and certify. Until those deep tiers expand, the headline shell targets remain aspirations gated by powder and explosives.
For Ukraine, the practical effect is that ammunition supply improved steadily but unevenly, tracking the slowest link rather than the fastest. For Western planners, it reframed artillery resupply as a chemicals problem dressed up as a steel one.
Frequently Asked Questions
What goes into a 155mm artillery shell?
A complete 155mm round combines four main elements: a forged and machined steel body, an explosive bursting charge (typically TNT, sometimes with RDX), a fuze that triggers detonation, and a separate propelling charge of nitrocellulose-based powder that launches the projectile. Each element comes from a different industrial pipeline, and a shortage in any one limits how many finished rounds can be produced.
What is the EU's 155mm shell production target?
Under the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), the EU's headline aim was to lift annual European 155mm output toward roughly two million shells. The Commission said European capacity reached about one million rounds a year in early 2025, with major primes adding lines to reach 1.1 to 1.5 million by 2027. ASAP allocated about €500 million to the effort.
How many 155mm shells does the US make per month?
US monthly output rose from about 14,500 shells before 2022 to roughly 40,000 in 2025. The Army's target is around 100,000 rounds per month; this was originally aimed for October 2025 but is now expected closer to mid-2026, with more than a million shells projected to be produced over the course of 2026.
Why is propellant the main bottleneck?
Forging steel shell bodies can be scaled using existing heavy-industry capacity, but energetic nitrocellulose and propellant powder come from a handful of hazardous chemical plants. Western planners repeatedly found that powder and explosives, not the metal parts, set the real ceiling on how many complete rounds could leave the line.
What explosive fills a 155mm shell?
The standard bursting charge is TNT, sometimes combined with the more powerful RDX in compositions such as Composition B. RDX and HMX are produced in very few facilities — in the US, primarily BAE Systems' Holston Army Ammunition Plant in Tennessee — which makes the explosive fill another concentrated chokepoint.
How much does each step depend on the others?
Completely. A round is only finished when body, fill, fuze and propellant are all available together. A plant that can fill a million empty bodies a year is throttled if it can only obtain propellant for a fraction of that. This sequential dependency is why output tracks the slowest tier, usually energetic chemicals.
Why did Western stockpiles run out so fast?
Artillery consumption in Ukraine has at times reached tens of thousands of rounds a day. Stockpiles sized for short, high-intensity conflicts drained within months, and peacetime production rates — built around small annual orders — could not keep pace. The gap between consumption and production drove the urgent ramp-up.
How much explosive does the US ramp need?
Reaching about 100,000 complete 155mm rounds a month implies very large volumes of energetic material — reporting has cited figures in the tens of thousands of tons of explosives, historically met partly through imports. That is one reason the US is rebuilding domestic TNT and explosives capacity alongside metal-parts and assembly lines.
Who are the main 155mm producers in the West?
In Europe, Rheinmetall is the largest, targeting up to about 1.1 million shells a year by 2027, alongside Nammo, KNDS and others. In the US, General Dynamics and partners operate and are expanding government-owned plants, with new metal-parts and load-assemble-pack facilities, including a major site in Mesquite, Texas.
Will the production targets be met?
Metal-parts and assembly capacity scaled quickly, but the EU's two-million and the US's 100,000-a-month goals have slipped because powder and explosives take longer to build. Most analysts expect the targets to be approached gradually rather than hit on the original timelines, with the deepest chemical tiers easing through the late 2020s.