Defense Stocks Since 24 February 2022: Winners and Laggards
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 was the single most important catalyst for global defense equities in a generation. In the years since, a clear pattern emerged: relatively small European defense companies re-rated explosively, while the large, mature US primes posted solid but far more modest gains. This page ranks the major listed defense names by the approximate change in their market value since just before the invasion, separating the standout winners from the relative laggards, and explains why the gap was so wide.
Before and After 24 February 2022
On the eve of the invasion, European defense valuations reflected two decades of post-Cold-War under-investment. Rheinmetall traded around €96 a share on 23 February 2022; within weeks it had broken €200 for the first time. By early 2026 the same company was valued at roughly €75 billion, having spent part of the year above €1,000 a share before a consolidation. That trajectory, more than any other, defines the period.
The mechanism was straightforward. Germany announced a €100bn special defense fund, NATO members moved past the 2% of GDP spending floor, and demand for artillery ammunition outstripped European supply. Investors stopped treating defense as a low-growth, ESG-excluded cyclical and began pricing it as structural growth. The smaller and more ammunition-exposed a company was, the larger its re-rating.
US contractors benefited from the same spending wave, but from a far higher base and with slower-moving, congressionally-budgeted demand. The result was a striking divergence in percentage terms that the ranking below makes explicit.
Ranking: Winners and Laggards
The table ranks selected listed defense names by the approximate scale of their market-value change between just before the February 2022 invasion and an early-2026 snapshot. All figures are rounded and currency effects are not normalized; treat them as orders of magnitude, not precise returns.
| Rank | Company (ticker) | Region | Approx. change since Feb 2022 | 2026 market cap (approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rheinmetall (RHM) | Germany | ~10x share price | ~€75B (2026-03-05) |
| 2 | Renk (R3NK) | Germany | several-fold | mid single-digit €B |
| 3 | Hensoldt (HAG) | Germany | several-fold | high single-digit €B |
| 4 | Leonardo (LDO) | Italy | more than doubled | tens of €B |
| 5 | Saab (SAAB-B) | Sweden | roughly tripled | tens of SEK B |
| 6 | Thales (HO) | France | roughly doubled | tens of €B |
| 7 | BAE Systems (BA.) | UK | roughly doubled | ~$75B (2026) |
| 8 | General Dynamics (GD) | US | solid, sub-double | tens of $B |
| 9 | Lockheed Martin (LMT) | US | modest (~+25%) | ~$125B (2026) |
| 10 | Northrop / RTX | US | modest | tens of $B |
⚠ Figures are approximate, rounded, and based on public market-data aggregators (companiesmarketcap.com, stockanalysis.com). Some smaller names listed only recently, so multi-year comparisons are indicative. Not investment advice.
Why Europe Led the Rally
The European outperformance was a base effect as much as a growth story. Going into 2022, the continent's defense industry had been managed for efficiency, not for surge capacity, so order books were thin and valuations low. When budgets turned, the percentage increase in expected revenue was enormous relative to the starting point.
Ammunition exposure amplified the move. Artillery has been central to the war in Ukraine, consumption rates dwarfed peacetime production, and Western stockpiles emptied quickly. Companies that could make 155mm shells, propellant and explosives—Rheinmetall above all—were suddenly the most valuable links in the chain. Drivetrain and sensor specialists such as Renk and Hensoldt rode the same wave.
Reuters reporting noted that combined annual revenue for Rheinmetall, Leonardo, BAE Systems, Thales, Hensoldt and Saab rose on the order of 50% or more across 2021–2025, a pace US primes did not match.
The US Primes That Lagged
Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics all grew revenue and backlog over the period, but their share-price gains were modest by comparison. Lockheed's market cap rose from roughly $100 billion in early 2022 to about $125 billion in 2026—a respectable move, but nothing like a re-rating.
Three factors explain the gap. US primes were already large, so there was less room for multiple expansion. US defense demand moves through a slower, congressionally-set budget cycle. And several names carried company-specific drags, with Boeing's defense arm weighed down by separate commercial-aviation problems.
For income-focused investors, though, the US names offered something European growth stocks did not: long records of rising dividends and large buybacks. That trade-off—explosive European growth versus steadier US capital return—became one of the defining choices in the sector.
Valuation Risks From Here
By 2026 the easy gains were behind the sector. European defense stocks consolidated after their multi-year run, and analysts increasingly questioned whether the highest valuations could be justified if order growth slowed. At elevated multiples, even small disappointments on production ramp-ups or budget timing can trigger sharp pullbacks.
The bullish case rests on the durability of European rearmament: depleted stockpiles still need replenishing, multi-year framework contracts are signed, and budget commitments extend well beyond any near-term ceasefire. The bearish case is that much of this is already in the price. This page takes no view on which prevails—it is analysis, not advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which defense stock rose the most since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine?
Among large listed names, Rheinmetall posted the steepest gain. Its share price was about €96 just before the 24 February 2022 invasion and its market cap reached roughly €75 billion by early 2026, a re-rating in the region of tenfold on the share price and far more than any US prime. Smaller German names such as Renk and Hensoldt also rose sharply. Figures are approximate and move with the market.
Why did European defense stocks beat US defense stocks after 2022?
Europe was starting from a much lower base. Decades of under-spending meant European primes had thin order books, so the post-2022 surge in budgets produced a far larger percentage change than for US firms, which were already large and well-funded. The structural story of EU rearmament re-rated valuations of companies like Rheinmetall, Leonardo and Saab.
Did US defense stocks like Lockheed Martin underperform?
In percentage terms, yes. Lockheed Martin's market cap rose from roughly $100 billion in early 2022 to about $125 billion in 2026, a solid but modest gain compared with European peers that multiplied several times over. US primes were already mature, large-cap businesses with limited room for explosive re-rating.
Are these gains because of the Ukraine war specifically?
The 2022 invasion was the trigger, but the re-rating reflects a broader, multi-year shift: NATO members raising spending toward and beyond 2% of GDP, depleted ammunition stockpiles needing replenishment, and later tensions elsewhere. The war reset expectations for European defense demand for years, not just for a single conflict.
Could a ceasefire reverse these defense-stock gains?
A durable ceasefire could slow new orders and pressure the highest valuations, and European defense stocks did consolidate in 2026 after their run. But replenishing depleted NATO stockpiles is a multi-year task, and budget commitments are set well in advance, so a sharp full reversal is not the base case for most analysts.
What were the laggards in the defense-stock rally?
The relative laggards were the large, mature US primes—Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX—whose percentage gains were modest. Boeing's defense unit was weighed down by separate commercial-aviation problems. These are still substantial companies, but their valuations did not multiply the way smaller European names did.
Is it too late to invest in defense stocks?
This page does not give investment advice. After several years of gains, many European defense stocks trade on high valuations that already price in years of growth, which raises the risk of sharp swings on any disappointment. Anyone considering the sector should check current figures and consult a licensed adviser.
How do you measure a stock's change since February 2022?
We compare an approximate market capitalization or share price just before the 24 February 2022 invasion with an as-of snapshot in 2026, then express the change as a multiple or percentage. Currency effects, share issuance and the exact snapshot date all affect the number, so all figures here are rounded and approximate.
Where can I verify these defense-stock figures?
Historical and current market caps are published by aggregators such as companiesmarketcap.com, stockanalysis.com and macrotrends.net, and in each company's investor-relations filings. Always confirm the as-of date because market caps change every trading day. This page is analysis, not advice.
Did Russian defense companies gain in the same way?
Russian arms makers are mostly state-controlled or sanctioned and do not trade on open Western markets, so comparable market-cap figures are not available. Their output rose under wartime mobilization, but this cannot be read off a share price. We treat Russian producers qualitatively, citing sources such as SIPRI and KSE rather than inventing valuations.